Today is New Year’s Eve. It’s also Saint Sylvester’s Day, the 420th anniversary of the British East India Company’s charter and the 141st anniversary of Thomas Edison’s incandescent light demo.
But mainly, I figure, for most Americans, today is New Year’s Eve.
The day before and day of a new year is a big deal for folks around the world. Which moment marks the start of a new annual cycle varies, depending on where and who you are.
My New Year’s Eve is the day I call December 31. It’s a little after Earth’s northern hemisphere winter solstice. Many folks in east Asia start a new year a month or two after that solstice.
Hardly anyone celebrates Akitu any more, and that’s another topic.1 Almost.
The Times Square Ball: Beacon Above an Unsquare Square
There’s been a New Year’s Eve street party in New York City’s Times Square at least since December 31, 1907. That’s when The New York Times raised and dropped a big ball atop 1475 Broadway, AKA One Times Square.
The big ball drop has ended New Year’s Eve and started the new year ever since.
Most New Year’s Eves, anyway. World War II affected 1942’s and 1943’s street parties. The ball drop didn’t happen those years. Lighting a beacon over New York City for the convenience of German submarine commanders seemed inadvisable.
But the 20th century’s global war — I think of WW I and II as two phases of one conflict, and that’s yet another topic — is over now and hadn’t started in 1907.
The idea behind the 1907 ball drop was drawing attention to 1475 Broadway: headquarters of The New York Times since 1904.
Times Square was Longacre Square at the time. It was and is a stretched hourglass of pavement where Broadway and 7th Avenue overlap, between West 42nd and 47th Streets.
And there you have it, a town square —
Shaped like a bow tie.
Named after a newspaper that started moving out of the square’s most famous building around 1912.
With a high-tech time ball mounted on a largely-unoccupied office building that’s mainly a place to put advertising billboards. Big ones. Several of them digital.2
NYE 2021 and COVID-19
This year’s Times Square party will be different —
“Every year as the clock nears midnight on December 31, the eyes of the world turn once more to the dazzling lights and bustling energy of Times Square. Anticipation runs high….
“…Due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, NYE 2021 will NOT be open to the public this year — but there will be live performances, and we hope all of you will enjoy the virtual celebrations safely from the comfort of your own home….”
— But not so much for me.
I’ve never been to New York City. But I’ve dropped in on the Times Square New Year’s Eve street party rather often. Thanks to the Internet and living one time zone west of the Big Apple, I can be virtually there, and still get to sleep at a moderately reasonable hour.
I plan to virtually visit the Big Apple again this year. Even though the Waldorf Astoria Hotel has long since stopped hosting Guy Lombardo. I’ll get back to that, and how I see traditions with a lower case “t.”
New Traditions
Singing John Lennon’s “Imagine” before the ball drop has been a Times Square tradition since 2005.
Maybe, if 2021 maintains 2020’s momentum, Gloria Gaynor’s “I Will Survive” will become another tradition.
“…Andra Day … will continue the New Year’s Eve tradition of singing John Lennon’s ‘Imagine’ just before the Ball Drop. … Gloria Gaynor will be performing her classic, and very appropriate, hit ‘I Will Survive’ on New Year’s Eve, along with two other songs….”
(“Times Square New Year’s Eve 2021,” (Times Square NYC (2020))
“…I should have changed that stupid lock, I should have made you leave your key
If I’d known for just one second you’d be back to bother me…
“…I’ve got all my life to live
And I’ve got all my love to give and I’ll survive
I will survive, hey, hey….”
(“I Will Survive,” Gloria Gaynor (1978) via lyrics.com)
Lyrics, Conventional and Otherwise
Either way, I suspect that “Imagine” lyrics will be Lennon’s own this year. I suspect the party planners don’t want a repeat of Cee Lo Green’s 2012 rendition.
“The lyrics of John Lennon’s ‘Imagine’ are well-known to generations of fans, and when Cee Lo Green changed them while performing in New York’s Times Square on New Year’s Eve, not everyone took it well.
“Instead of singing ‘Nothing to kill or die for, and no religion too,’ Green instead sang, ‘Nothing to kill or die for, and all religion’s true.’…”
“…Imagine there’s no countries
It isn’t hard to do
Nothing to kill or die for
And no religion too
Imagine all the people
Living life in peace….”
John Lennon, “Imagine” (1971) via oldielyrics.com)
I’m not overly fond of either Lennon’s “no religion too” or Green’s “all religion’s true.”
But I think Green’s lyric is closer to the mark.
Respect and Love
I’m a Catholic. I wouldn’t be Catholic if I didn’t think the Church was operating under our Lord’s authority.
But because I am a Catholic, I must acknowledge that other religions seek and have found facets of truth. And I should treat folks who don’t believe as I do with respect, love, prudence and patience. (Catechism of the Catholic Church, 839–848, 2104)
That is not, putting it mildly, easy. I live in a country where an endemic version of Christianity views Catholicism and Catholics as a threat to all that they hold dear. (December 19, 2020)
They’ve got a point, since many — most — Catholics aren’t Americans. And those of us who are Americans often have insufficiently English ancestors. And I’m drifting off-topic.
Instead of fretting over “no religion too” or “all religion’s true,” I prefer focusing on “Living life in peace.”
Our Traditions aren’t Tradition
Which sound nice: particularly after a year of political ranting, the Floyd riots and weirdness inspired by the COVID-19 pandemic. (July 11, 2020; June 28, 2020; March 31, 2020)
I’m forgetting something. Let me think. Saint Sylvester and Thomas Edison. Akitu and digital billboards. The Beatles and living life in peace. Right.
Singing “Imagine” just before a whacking great high-tech disco ball descends is a tradition. So is getting together to hear the song and making noise as the Times Square Ball goes down.
Those are traditions with a lower-case “t.”
I like some traditions.
I miss a few that have ended, like listening to Guy Lombardo on New Year’s Eve. He’s a musician and band leader who flourished from the late 1920s to the mid 1970s..3 Hearing a contemporary pop star belt out “Imagine” just isn’t the same.
But traditions don’t last forever.
That gives some folks conniptions. One of the blessings, perhaps, of 2020’s COVID-19 pandemic and election politics is that “traditional Catholics” haven’t been in the spotlight.
They’re folks who, over-simplifying the situation, believe that the Catholic Church hasn’t been Catholic since the 1960s.
Yesteryearning
I wasn’t a Catholic before Vatican II, and missed my opportunity to learn — incorrectly — that a local parish’s customs were the immutable laws of the Catholic Church.
“In the spirit of Vatican II” nonsense didn’t help tight-collar Catholics stay calm.
I like some of my parish’s traditions, like that big evergreen we have near the altar each Christmas season. But I understand that our local and regional traditions aren’t the Church’s Tradition: a living body of knowledge and wisdom, passed along from the Apostles.
That, the Bible and Magisterium — are topics that I’ve discussed before, and will again. But not today. (March 4, 2018)
For Auld Lang Syne
(Dik Browne’s “Hagar the Horrible” (February 25, 1973))
As 2020 draws to a close I find myself waxing nostalgic. Which is nothing like waxing my mustache, something I’ve never done.
Two or three more points, and I’m done. For now, that is.
First, about “I imagine we will survive.”
This has been a stressful year.
I don’t like any election year’s sound and fury, and enjoyed 2020’s even less.
The COVID-19 pandemic isn’t as bad as the Black Death. But it hasn’t been fun. At all.
But I think, paraphrasing that Gloria Gaynor song, we will survive. And, perhaps more important, I hope we do. And I hope my family and I do, too.
Second, I think there’s wisdom in remembering our past. Including the pleasant parts.
I remember the good old days when I watched Guy Lombardo’s final New Year’s Eve broadcasts.
And I look ahead to the days when folks will fondly recall their rosy memories of Gloria Gaynor, Cee Lo Green and chatbots.
Finally, here’s a bit of verse:
“…For auld lang syne, my jo,
for auld lang syne,
we’ll tak’ a cup o’ kindness yet,
for auld lang syne….”
(“Auld Lang Syne,” Bard of Ayrshire (1788))
There’s more to say, but for the most part I’ve said it before:
I’m seeing “The Best of,” “Top 10” and “2020 Top” headlines in my news feed: as usual for late December.
Instead of waiting for someone else to highlight this year’s science news stories, I’m making my own ‘top 10’ list. Each item is something that caught my attention, seemed important, or has been lurking in my ‘to do’ folders.
But that’s not why Earth’s wandering poles made my top 10 science stories.
What’s noteworthy about geomagnetic reversal in 2020 is —
The Curious Incident of the Apocalyptic Headlines
“…’Is there any point to which you would wish to draw my attention?’
“‘To the curious incident of the dog in the night-time.’
“‘The dog did nothing in the night-time.’
“‘That was the curious incident,’ remarked Sherlock Holmes….”
(“Silver Blaze,” “The Memoirs of Sherlock Holmes.” Arthur Conan Doyle (1892) [emphasis mine])
What’s odd about the 2020 geomagnetic apocalypse headlines is that there weren’t any.
Maybe I missed them. Or maybe the COVID-19 pandemic gave journalists and editors juicier ‘we’ll all die’ material.
Either way, I figure we’ll eventually see retreads of yesteryear’s “sparking chaos … Mayan apocalypse” nuggets. Topically updated, of course:
9. NASA Finds 300,000 (Potentially) Habitable Planets!
(From Bryson, Kunimoto, Kopparapu and all; used w/o permission.)
(Habitable zone flux range and orbital periods for G, K, and F stars.)
My hat’s off to CNN’s Jessie Yeung, for putting “potentially” in the headline. And including links to a NASA/Ames press release and a 40-plus page research paper.
Bryson, Zamudio and all didn’t find 300,000 Earth-like planets. They did, however, study the Kepler DR25 planet candidate catalog and Gaia-based stellar properties.
We’re still sifting through Kepler space telescope data. Maybe scientists have found all there is to be found there. But I doubt it.
Getting back to those 300,000 potential ‘Earths’ — We’ve found a bit upward of 5,000 exoplanet candidates and 2,500-plus confirmed exoplanets.
Bryson, Zamudio and team’s estimate of planets like ours orbiting stars like ours is just that: an estimate. It’s based on what’s in the Kepler search space. And is a low-end estimate, the scientists say. It’s still worth noting. Which is why it’s on my list.
How many rocky and roughly Earth-size planets have an atmosphere, and water, and life? That’s another question.2
8. Arecibo Radio Telescope: Instrument Platform Cables Snap
“A capsule carrying the materials landed in Inner Mongolia at 01:59 local time on Thursday (17:59 GMT, Wednesday).
“It’s more than 40 years since the American Apollo and Soviet Luna missions brought their samples home.
“The new specimens should provide fresh insight on the geology and early history of Earth’s satellite….”
The Chang’e-5 capsule’s successful return is a big deal for China’s space program. It’s also a big deal for scientists studying Earth’s moon. We haven’t had fresh samples in decades.4
But I put this in my top-10 list’s lower half because it’s an “again” item, not a “first.”
6. TESS & Red Dwarfs: Beware the Superflares!
(From S. Wiessinger/GSFC/NASA, used w/o permission.)
(Thar she blows! Artist’s impression of a flaring red dwarf star.)
“Ultraviolet light from giant stellar flares can destroy a planet’s habitability. New research from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill will help astrobiologists understand how much radiation planets experience during super flares and whether life could exist on worlds beyond our solar system.
“Super flares are bursts of energy that are 10 to 1,000 times larger than the biggest flares from the Earth’s sun. These flares can bathe a planet in an amount of ultraviolet light huge enough to doom the chances of life surviving there.
“Researchers from UNC-Chapel Hill have for the first time measured the temperature of a large sample of super flares from stars, and the flares’ likely ultraviolet emissions….”
“Superflares and the Habitability of Planets”
“Data from TESS helps researchers understand planetary habitability”
Aaron Gronstal, NASA Goddard, Research Highlight, Astrobiology at NASA (October 8, 2020)
“Data from NASA’s Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) is helping researchers understand how stellar flares can affect the habitability of planets. Flares occur when bursts of energy are released from stars, and they can vary greatly in magnitude. The recent study looks at extremely large events known as super flares, which can be 10 to 1000 times larger that any flares we see from the Sun….”
I see the University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill research as an example of what’s possible when larger data sets are available.
It’s also another piece of the ‘is there life out there?’ puzzle.
Life and Red Dwarfs: Still Learning the Odds
Informed opinion on the odds of life on planets orbiting red dwarf stars keeps changing.5
A few decades back, chances seemed slim-to-impossible.
Red dwarfs are very cool. To be Earth’s temperature, a planet would have to be closer to its star than Mercury is to ours.
Then we found systems like TRAPPIST-1, with one planet dead-center in the star’s habitable zone, plus one each on the zone’s inner and outer edges. And we learned that smaller stars often have planets in smaller orbits than the Solar System’s.
Habitability for red dwarf planets looked hopeful.
Until scientists started studying what happens when red dwarf stars flare. Their flares are often about as strong as our star’s. But since habitable planets would be much closer to the action, they’d get a bigger jolt of UV, X-ray and other radiation.
Some studies showed that red dwarf flares wouldn’t just give critters on habitable-zone planets lethal sunburn. Given time, they’d blow the planet’s atmosphere away.
Unless, maybe, an Earth-like planet’s magnetic field could shield its atmosphere. And, again maybe, the flares weren’t “super.”
Then again, the UNC-CH study says the super flares last maybe five to 15 minutes.
That’s a lot of “maybes.”
All of which affect habitability. Probably. Then there’s the difference between ‘habitable,’ ‘comfortable,’ and ‘ideal vacation destination.’
I wouldn’t want to be standing on a beach on a hypothetical red dwarf’s Earth-like planet when a superflare happened. Assuming that the beach is on the planet’s ‘day’ side.
But maybe critters living below the water’s surface wouldn’t mind. Assuming that there were critters there.
My guess is that we have a very great deal left to learn about life, the universe and all that.
5. Three New Worlds: TOI 700 d, KOI 456.04 and Proxima c
(From Natalie Batalha and Wendy Stenzel, via NASA/Ames Research Center, used w/o permission.)
(Exoplanets, charted by radius and orbital period. (2017))
Before 1992, the only known planets orbited our star.
Not quite three decades later, we’ve spotted nearly 5,000 worlds orbiting thousands of other stars. And hundreds of stars with more than one known planet.
Most of the newly-discovered planets and planetary systems aren’t what we expected. But we’ve found a few near-matches to Jupiter and Neptune.
And a few worlds that are almost, but not quite, like Earth.6
TOI 700 d
(From NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, used w/o permission.) (TOI 700 d, as imagined by an artist, and the TOI 700 planetary system.)
“About 100 light-years away … in the constellation Dorado … TOI 700 d (illustrated here), the first Earth-size habitable-zone planet discovered by TESS….”
“NASA’s Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) has discovered its first Earth-size planet in its star’s habitable zone…. Scientists confirmed the find, called TOI 700 d, using NASA’s Spitzer Space Telescope and have modeled the planet’s potential environments to help inform future observations.
“TOI 700 d is one of only a few Earth-size planets discovered in a star’s habitable zone so far. Others include several planets in the TRAPPIST-1 system and other worlds discovered by NASA’s Kepler Space Telescope….”
The artist’s picture of TOI 700 d assumes that there’s air and water there.
That’s probable. The planet’s density is around 5.6 grams per cubic centimeter, while Earth’s is 5.514 g/cm3.
But we don’t know how probable. Best estimates for TOI 700 d’s diameter and mass have considerable margins of error. The world might be mostly water or have no surface water. It may or may not have an atmosphere.
If our best estimates for TOI 700 d’s diameter and mass are spot-on, it could have a nitrogen-oxygen atmosphere, an ocean and photosynthetic critters exhaling oxygen.
In that sense, it would be Earth-like.
But at 1.9 times — nearly twice — Earth’s diameter, TOI 700 d’s surface gravity would be nearly double Earth’s
That’s probably not what most folks would think of as Earth 2.0.
But jumbo supersize almost-Earths may be common. We’re finding quite a few.
“Among the more than 4,000 known exoplanets, KOI-456.04 is something special: less than twice the size of Earth, it orbits a Sun-like star. And it does so with a star-planet distance that could permit planetary surface temperatures conducive to life. The object was discovered by a team led by the Max Planck Institute for Solar System Research in Göttingen….
“… ‘The full picture of habitability, however, involves a look at the qualities of the star too’, explains MPS scientist and lead author of the new study Dr. René Heller. So far, almost all exoplanets less than twice the size of Earth that have a potential for clement surface temperatures are in orbit around a red dwarf….”
I’m pretty sure someone translated this article into English. That might explain the lead paragraph’s potentially-misleading thumbnail sketch of stellar classification.
“…Kepler-160, actually emits visible light; the central stars of almost all other exoplanets, on the other hand, emit infrared radiation, are smaller and fainter than the Sun and therefore belong to the class of red dwarf stars….” Dr Birgit Krummheuer, Dr. René Heller; Max-Planck-Gesellschaft (June 4, 2020)
Red dwarf stars do emit infrared radiation. And they are smaller and fainter than our star.
But our star and Kepler-160 emit infrared radiation, too.
Our sun is hotter than red dwarf stars, around 5,700 K, 9,800 °F, so its emission spectrum peaks at 580 nm, give or take.
Red dwarf temperatures range from 2,300K to 3,800 K. That’s 3680 °F to 6380 °F. They emit a greater fraction of their energy in the infrared zone: electromagnetic (EM) radiation from 700 nanometers to 1 millimeter.
Again, these cool stars do emit visible light. EM radiation our eyes detect, that is. Their visible light peaks near the visible spectrum’s red end.
With surface temperatures very roughly 2,700 K, 4,400 °F, they’re very roughly the temperature and color of a ‘warm’ LED or incandescent bulb. (April 21, 2017; July 29, 2016)
But even ultra-cool red dwarfs like TRAPPPIST-1 wouldn’t look as emphatically red as most artistic depictions make them.
One more thing. Although KOI 456.04 is almost certainly a planet orbiting Kepler-160, its existence hasn’t been confirmed yet.
“A Potential for Clement Surface Temperatures”
Red dwarfs, the coolest ones at any rate, emit most of their energy in the infrared.
But since they’re really small and don’t emit much energy of any sort, their habitable zone is very small.
I think it’s remarkable that we’ve found so many rocky planets at around the right distance for liquid water. And an atmosphere like ours.
That may mean that we’ll find a great many worlds supporting life.
Or that we’ll only find life on planets like Earth orbiting stars like our sun.
Or maybe there isn’t life anywhere but Earth.
In my considered opinion, we don’t know. Not yet.
Proxima Centauri
(From Michele Diodati/Medium, via EarthSky, used w/o permission.)
(Artist’s concept of Proxima Centauri and its two known planets.)
“Just a few days ago, scientists announced that the closest known Earth-sized exoplanet, Proxima Centauri b, had been confirmed to orbit the nearest star to our solar system. That’s an exciting development, but now, as scientists announced on June 2, 2020, it seems that another possible planet around the same star also has been verified … Proxima Centauri c! Both planets are only 4.2 light-years away.
“…Evidence for Proxima Centauri c was first announced earlier this year by a research group led by Mario Damasso of Italy’s National Institute for Astrophysics (INAF). But the evidence wasn’t conclusive. This second planet for Proxima is apparently a lot larger than Earth and orbits its star every 1,907 days. It orbits at about 1.5 times the distance from its star that Earth orbits from the sun. Not an extreme difference, but Proxima Centauri is a red dwarf star, smaller and cooler than our sun, so at that distance, the planet can be expected to be significantly colder than Earth…..”
The last I checked, scientists figure Proxima Centauri c is a super-Earth or a mini-Neptune. Either way, it nowhere near as warm as our world. Unless its getting heat from something other than its star. Which seems unlikely at this point.
On the other hand – – –
An Odd Signal
(From BBC News, used w/o permission.)
“Alien Hunters Discover Mysterious Signal from Proxima Centauri”
Strange radio transmissions appear to be coming from our nearest star system; now scientists are trying to work out what is sending them
Jonathan O’Callaghan, Lee Billings; Scientific American (December 18, 2020)
“Found this autumn in archival data gathered last year, the signal appears to emanate from the direction of our neighboring star and cannot yet be dismissed as Earth-based interference, raising the very faint prospect that it is a transmission from some form of advanced extraterrestrial intelligence (ETI)—a so-called ‘technosignature.’ Now, speaking to Scientific American, the scientists behind the discovery caution there is still much work to be done, but admit the interest is justified. ‘It has some particular properties that caused it to pass many of our checks, and we cannot yet explain it,’ says Andrew Siemion from the University of California, Berkeley….”
For starters, and mostly, the radio emission is along a narrow band and peaks at 982 megahertz. That’s a wavelength of 30.5 centimeters, if I did the conversion right.
Our satellite and spacecraft communications don’t generally use that frequency. So if it’s artificial, it’s almost certainly not from one of our explorers.
Assertions, Assumptions and Uncertainty
But if my memory serves, 982 megahertz isn’t one of the wavelengths folks have said space aliens would use.
That’s either a point against the Proxima signal being artificial. Or, at least as likely, a conclusion based on an arguably-ungrounded assumption.
Informed speculation that extraterrestrial intelligence would use particular parts of the microwave spectrum are just that: informed speculation. I think C. H. Townes is right: “…considerable uncertainty must remain.”
Many serious discussions of SETI assume that we may have neighbors. That if so, everybody’s as chatty as we are. And that they would use modulated radio waves for moderate- to long-range communication.
Just like we have. For the last century.
And that they’re either close enough for us to pick up their broadcasts, or that they’re sending signals directly to us.
That’s a lot of assumptions.
I don’t think that the recent ‘Proxima signal’ is from an alien transmitter. Or that it’s not. And certainly not that it either must be or can’t be. Which is another topic.
4. Tasmanian Devils: Not Doomed?
(From Getty Images, via BBC News, used w/o permission.)
“There’s fresh hope for the survival of endangered Tasmanian devils after large numbers were killed off by facial tumours.
The world’s largest carnivorous marsupials have been battling Devil Facial Tumour Disease (DFTD) for over 20 years.
But researchers have found the animals’ immune system to be modifying to combat the assault.
And according to an international team of scientists from Australia, UK, US and France, the future for the devils is now looking brighter….”
Scientists don’t know for sure why Tasmanian devils aren’t dying as fast as they have been. But “…the decline has at least now levelled [!] out….” Which is good news for Tasmanian devils, and folks who have been concerned about the noisy critters.7
3. Habayusa-2’s Successful Return
(From JAXA/EPA, via BBC News, used w/o permission.)
(Hayabusa-2 return capsule — after successful landing near Woomera, South Australia.)
(From JAXA, via BBC News, used w/o permission.)
(“Chunks of rock and dust from asteroid Ryugu, contained in chamber A of the capsule”
(BBC News))
“Scientists have been greeted by the sight of jet black chunks of rock and soil from an asteroid after opening a capsule that returned from deep space a week ago.
“It’s the first significant sample of material to be delivered to Earth from a space rock and was grabbed last year by Japan’s Hayabusa-2 spacecraft….”
Human and robotic explorers have been bringing samples back since 1969. In 2010, JAXA’s Hayabusa spacecraft returned with a few micrograms of dust from 25143 Itokawa.
However much Haaybusa-2 returned, “considerable” sounds hopeful. And apparently scientists found gas from the asteroid, too.8 All of which warrants a place on this list.
So does making a successful landing. Returning to Earth is still a tricky process. I’m hoping NASA’s OSIRIS-REx samples experience a smooth landing in 2023.
A great deal can go wrong on the way from deep space to Earth’s surface.
Flashback: Genesis, 2004
(From USAF 388th Range Squadron, via Wikimedia Commons, used w/o permission.)
(Rough landing. (September 8, 2004))
NASA’s Genesis spacecraft collected and returned solar wind particles in 2004. Zipping along at 24,700 miles an hour — give or take a bit — its return capsule entered Earth’s atmosphere over Oregon.
At the right angle: not so shallow that it skipped back into space, or so steep that deceleration crushed the craft or overheating burned it.
By the time the Genesis return capsule reached Utah’s skies, it was sauntering along at about 109 mph. Aircraft were ready to catch it in mid-air. But a deceleration sensor didn’t work. The capsule’s parafoil didn’t deploy.
And the waiting pilots, prudently, let the capsule proceed to Dugway Proving Ground.
A recovery mission because a salvage job, the Stardust probe returned a gram of comet 81P/Wild, and that’s yet another topic.
2. COVID-19 Pandemic
(From Nsaum75, via Wikimedia Commons, used w/o permission.)
(Pandemic in 2009. Swine flu, folks waiting for vaccine in a Texas City mall.)
The COVID-19 pandemic has been in the news, a lot.
But does it really matter? — Either as science or as anything else? And is it really a public health issue?
After all, those folks in Texas City weren’t wearing masks or staying six feet apart while waiting for vaccine during the 2009 swine flu pandemic.
But I think the COVID-19 pandemic matters as science. And that it’s a public health issue.
So was 2009’s swine flu pandemic. And the 1976 swine flu pandemic that didn’t happen.
Swine Flu, Just Like COVID-19: Except For How It’s Not
Swine flu 2009 was a pandemic.
COVID-19 is a pandemic.
They’re both pandemics, so they’re both pretty much alike, right?
Not quite. Pandemics are epidemics that went global, or at least international. In principle, at least, pandemics range from ‘take two aspirin and call me in the morning’ to the Black Death.
The 2009 swine flu was somewhere between those extremes. Its H1N1/09 virus is a variation of the bug that gives folks the flue each year. And Swine flu 2009’s bug wasn’t the same as the 1976 swine flu’s.9
The Epidemic that Wasn’t: Swine Flu 1976
The 1976 swine flu’s virus was an H1N1 virus: A/H1N1 in that case.
The outbreak started in Fort Dix. American public health folks developed a vaccine, saw to it that a great many Americans were vaccinated, and the outbreak fizzled.
In 2006, an expert said that the folks in charge may have reacted too quickly to the 1976 swine flu outbreak.
Seems that recent number crunching shows that the outbreak might have fizzled anyway, without all those pokey vaccinations. In any case, only one person died of ‘swine flu 1976’ and that swine flu epidemic didn’t happen.
Pandemics and Survivability
H1N1 and company is — or would that be “are?” — what caused “Spanish influenza” and the “Russian flu:” the 1918 and 1918-1919 pandemics.
Those viruses have been been making folks sick every year since then.
Influenza can be fatal, but it’s not dignified.
Someone with a runny nose and watery eyes, who acts and sounds like an irritable frog, isn’t likely to inspire sappy sentiment.
And is more apt to star in something like that 1889 “everyone has influenza” cartoon.
I’ll grant that politicos, doctors and potion peddlers are fair game for satirists.
But I figure that trying to keep folks alive and healthy is a good idea, anyway. The job would be easier if viruses never changed. But that’s not how it is. Viruses change. fast.
That’s why we need an updated flu vaccine at least once a year. But each year’s flu vaccine is just that: an update of what we’ve done before. It’s not exactly a routine, but scientists have had considerable practice predicting and producing what’s needed.
Civil leaders may have over-reacted to pandemics, or maybe not.
I figure ‘an abundance of caution’ makes sense when dealing with a new virus. Even if it’s a mutated version of something we experience every year. “Mutated?!!” I’ll get back to that.
So does paying attention to how many folks are likely to die. CFR, Case Fatality Rate, is a controversial statistic. Data for pandemics is controversial. (December 16, 2020)
But data that some folks don’t like and statistical analyses that don’t satisfy everyone are all I have. So I’ll work with what I’ve got, hope for the best and focus on CFR numbers. At least then I’ll be comparing oranges to oranges.
Comparisons: Influenza Pandemics and COVID-19
(From Dan Polansky/BlankMap-World.svg authors, via Wikimedia Commons, used w/o permission.)
(COVID-19 Deaths per million, by country: December 20, 2020))
The 1918 “Spanish flu” pandemic killed between 20,000 and 100,000 out of every million people diagnosed as having it. That’s between 2% and 10% CFR.
The 2009 swine flu pandemic only killed 100 out of every million diagnosed. That’s 0.01% CFR.
COVID-19 CFR varies by age, location and a whole mess of other factors. I gather that out of every million folks diagnosed as having COVID-19, between under 1,000 to 250,000 die. Some countries, like Singapore, have hardly any deaths. Others aren’t doing so well.
In other words, COVID-19’s CFR is between <0.1% to over 25%. The 1918 “Spanish flu CFR was, depending on whose numbers you look at, between 0.10% and 0.28%. Neither are in the Black Death’s league, but COVID-19 is a serious health problem.
All that’s rather abstract. Let’s see what’s happening where I live, Minnesota.
On December 26, 2020, Minnesota’s Department of Health reported a total of 3,93,391 confirmed COVID-19 cases. 4,957 of those folks are now dead.
That’s a CFR of 1.26% in Minnesota, on the day after Christmas, 2020: worse than a typical seasonal flu, but not as bad as the 1918 “Spanish flu.” Not quite. Not here.10
(†) Odds of survival depend on where you live. And many other factors.
Data, Disease, Death and Decisions
I’m quite sure we don’t know everything about the COVID-19 pandemic, including how many folks have been catching the disease and how many died as a result.
But I’m also quite sure that it’s a serious disease. And that panic is not a reasonable option. Not that it ever is.
Keeping track of pandemic diseases would be easier if every nation’s government collected data the same way and reported it in a standard format.
Maybe we will, someday. But that’s not today’s reality.
On the ‘up’ side, we’ve learned a great deal since the Black Death was a current event.
We can’t, however use satellite imagery to highlight disease hotspots.
And governments haven’t settled on a standardized ‘who’s sick and who’s dying’ reporting format. I’m pretty sure that some governments are run by folks who prefer not acknowledging that their subjects are dying in wholesale lots.
That said, I see collecting and analyzing data that is available as a good idea. That’s part of the ‘science’ angle to the COVID-19 pandemic.
I don’t envy folks whose job is making decisions based on incomplete and sometimes-dubious data. Partly because they don’t have the option I do: waiting until more and better data arrives. Not if they’re going to do their job right.
Wrapping this bit up, we’ve learned and are learning a great deal about what makes folks sick, and how to lower the odds of death and permanent disability. And we’ve got a great deal left to learn.
“Travel may increase your chance of spreading and getting COVID-19. CDC continues to recommend postponing travel and staying home, as this is the best way to protect yourself and others this year.
“If you are considering traveling for the winter holidays, here are some important questions to ask yourself and your loved ones beforehand. These questions can help you decide what is best for you and your family….”
Okay. That CDC page is more of a Public Service Announcement than news.
“…As Joe Biden lifts his right hand to take the oath of office at noon on Jan. 20 at the Capitol, a team of specially trained cleaners will be lifting their hands to disinfect the White House….”
“…Biden and his wife, Jill, each received shots at ChristianaCare Hospital in Newark, Delaware. They will each need another round of the vaccinations developed by Pfizer-BioNTech in about 21 days….”
“Shares in London dropped and the pound lost ground after several EU countries closed their borders to the UK, which has reported a new variant of coronavirus….”
The closest approach to science I saw in Monday’s headlines was the “new variant of coronavirus” that was spooking investors.
Beware the Mutant Virus?
(From Getty Images, via BBC News, used w/o permission.)
(No, giant mutant coronaviruses are not coming to get you.)
I’ll take that — and an apparent lack of allusion to cautionary tales like “Attack of the Killer Tomatoes!” — as good news.
Virus Mutations Happen
And my hat’s off to outfits like BBC News, whose staff apparently takes time to research their topics, and include some science in their science news.
“…But every once in a while, a virus strikes lucky by mutating in a way that positively affects its ability to survive and reproduce….
“…Mutations in the gene that encodes the spike protein, which the virus uses to latch on to and enter human cells, are particularly worrisome.
“Some have been reported before, but not in the same precise number and combination.
“The variant has 14 mutations that cause a change in protein building blocks (amino acids) and three deletions (missing bits of genetic code)….”
(Helen Briggs, BBC News (December 22, 2020))
Changes in the SARS-CoV-2’s ‘spike-making’ code is, I think, reason for concern. Concern, not fretting.
And certainly not chucking science and giving flagellation a try. That sort of thing went out of vogue in the 15th century, and I’m drifting off-topic. (March 31, 2020)
Learning more about how the mutant spikes work makes sense, since at least some of the new mRNA vaccines work by making our cells mimic the SARS-CoV-2 spikes.11
“Mutant spikes?!” Good grief. Maybe I should cut news editors some slack. It’s hard to write colloquial headlines for COVID-19 pieces without sounding like a B-movie promoter.
Anyway, mutant spikes and vaccines bring me to my NUMBER ONE science news topic for 2020.
1. Science and Technology, Ethics and Decisions: mRNA Vaccines
(From Getty Images, via BBC News, used w/o permission.)
(Good news, mRNA vaccines are easier to make. But they don’t travel well.12)
“The very first vaccines for COVID-19 to complete phase 3 testing are an entirely new type: mRNA vaccines….
“…Traditional vaccines work: polio and measles are just two examples of serious illnesses brought under control by vaccines. Collectively, vaccines may have done more good for humanity than any other medical advance in history. But growing large amounts of a virus, and then weakening the virus or extracting the critical piece, takes a lot of time.
“Early steps toward mRNA vaccines
“About 30 years ago, a handful of scientists began exploring whether vaccines could be made more simply. What if you knew the exact structure of the mRNA that made the critical piece of a virus’s protein coat, such as the spike protein of the COVID-19 virus?…”
I see the COVID-19 mRNA vaccines as “exciting” in part because they’re an example of practical science: science and technology, economics and administrative decisions working together.
That’s the good news.
The bad news is that two of the new vaccines were tested with parts from a girl who was killed in the early 1970s: cell line HEK 293 and its variants. And HEK 293 was used in development of a third vaccine.
I’ve talked about available vaccines, the HEK 293 cell line, ethics and making decisions before. (December 16, 2020)
I figure a recap won’t hurt, so here goes.
Killing an innocent person to help another is a bad idea, even if the homicide is legal. (Catechism of the Catholic Church, 2268–2279, 2292–2296)
But I am not denouncing the two ‘tested with parts’ vaccines.
Ethics Matter — So do Life and Health
It’d be nice if the HEK 293 donor hadn’t been killed. But that’s not how it was, and now we have government-approved COVID-19 vaccines and ethical issues.
Maybe the COVID-19 pandemic will disappear in the wee hours of January 1, 2021.
Or, better yet, at the start of New York City’s business hours on December 30: with a gilt-edged guarantee, allowing the annual Times Square party to go ahead.
Seriously? That’s not going to happen. Although I do wonder what the Times Square virtual celebration will be like.
What will almost certainly happen is that, sooner or later, my turn will come to get a COVID-19 vaccination. And then I’ll cooperate. Or I won’t.
I’m hoping that one of the two available vaccines that weren’t developed with a murdered girl’s cells are available. Even so, the final tests of those two involved the HEK 293 donor.
I don’t like that.
But I’m not overly fond of playing ‘holier than the Pope,’ either. So I’ll go along with what my bishops and the Vatican have said.
Ethics matter. So does valuing my neighbor’s life and health. (December 16, 2020)
Working for the common good includes, but isn’t limited to, acting as if my neighbor’s life and health matters. It’s part of being Catholic. (Catechism, One/Two/Article 2 Participation in Social Life/II: The Common Good, 2258–2317)
Now, back to science and being human.
Cooperation and mRNA Vaccines
(From Getty Images, via BBC News, used w/o permission.)
“After the vaccine is injected into a person’s arm, the muscle cells will essentially swallow the mRNA, bringing it into the cell. From there, our body uses mRNA to make a coronavirus protein that your immune system can recognize and respond to. After getting the vaccine, if you are exposed to the real coronavirus, antibodies can recognize that protein, grab on to it, and keep the virus from getting into our cells.
“How it was developed
“As epidemiologist Rene Najera explains, while this is the first time a vaccine with this technology has been authorized, the technology is not new. The speed was also enabled by the global scientific community: pretty much as soon as the genetic sequence for the virus was released in January of this year, scientists across the globe began working on vaccines. It also helps that this particular vaccine is easier for scientists to make in the lab compared to others like the flu vaccine….”
As I see it, the big deal about our new COVID-19 mRNA vaccines isn’t new science. It’s science started in the late 20th century, applied to the problem of a new and dangerous virus.
I’ve no idea when we’d have seen the first mRNA vaccines, without the COVID-19 pandemic. And some truly remarkable examples of common sense.
I strongly suspect that developing and authorizing the new vaccines wouldn’t have been possible without today’s information technology helping scientists share information.
And a remarkable number of leaders letting scientists cooperate with each other.
Living in a Less-Than-Ideal world
I’d much rather live in a world where crackpots weren’t part of public discourse.
Maybe dividing the world into righteous ‘real Americans’ and the megalomaniacal evil masterminds plotting against me and folks who agree with me would be easier.
Or maybe not.
I get the impression that folks who lean toward that caricature and its liberal analogs aren’t very happy.
In any case, the world we live in isn’t a utopian Camelot brimming with harmony and understanding, where sympathy and trust abound: with no more falsehoods or derisions.
And I’m wandering off-topic again.
I’m Catholic, so I’m obliged to see paying attention to God’s universe and using what we learn — science and technology — as good ideas. They’re part of being human. I’m also expected to think that being healthy, and staying healthy, make sense. Within reason. (Catechism, 35–36, 301, 303–306, 311, 1704, 2288–2289, 2293–2296)
Like anything else we do, science and technology can be used to help or hurt others. How we use them is up to us.
I think helping others is a good idea. I’d jolly well better.
We’re experiencing a pandemic that’s scarier than many.
And we have vaccines for the new disease long before I thought we would.
Americans have endured another presidential election.
And I’ve finally begun sorting through a backlog of topics. Including “A Golden Age that Didn’t Quite Happen” and “Asisium, Assisi, and a Rich Kid’s Impulsive Charity.”
“Asisium…” is a working title which I may or may not use when the thing’s finished.
I’ve also got scattered notes about exoplanets, evolution and speculation regarding extraterrestrial intelligence.
So I predict that I’ll keep writing about science, life, the universe and everything. Barring unforeseen events, which are pretty much inevitable in this world.
Here’s a not-entirely-unrelated sample of stuff I’ve already written:
“This month is the eighteenth December in a row that men and women from Earth have been on board the International Space Station during the Christmas holidays. As the Expedition 54 crew members prepare to celebrate in 2017, here’s a quick peek at some of the Christmases past spent on board mankind’s outpost orbiting 250 miles above the planet.”
Update (1 of 2, December 27, 2020) Today’s news isn’t good. Certainly not for friends and family of Anthony Quinn Warner, whose DNA was in debris left by the Christmas morning explosion.
On the other hand, there seems little reason to fear an apparently non-existent cabal of saboteurs and their exploding RV campers.
Maybe that’s not good news. But it’s not bad news, either. Provided that most of us accept the possibility that every camper we see isn’t about to explode.
Federal investigators saying that it’s “…too early to suggest a motive…” makes sense to me.
Whatever reason the person who set off that explosion had — is something I may talk about.
Later, when there’s more information, and fewer unanswered questions.
“Police investigating a camper van blast that injured three people in Nashville on Christmas Day have named a suspect after DNA was collected at the scene.
“Officials in the US state of Tennessee said the DNA matched that of Anthony Quinn Warner, 63.
“The FBI said there was no indication of additional suspects and that it was too early to suggest a motive….
“…During a press conference on Sunday, federal investigators said they believed that Warner, who worked in IT and had extensive experience with electronics, was the sole individual responsible for the blast and had died at the site.
“They said the blast was probably deliberate, and that it was Warner’s remains discovered at the scene….
“…Earlier, CBS News reported that a DNA sample had been collected from Warner’s mother….
“…His former employer, estate agent Steve Fridrich, told the Nashville Tennessean that Warner had resigned unexpectedly this month after four years with the company. Mr Fridrich said the move had been ‘quite out of character’….”
Update (2 of 2, December 27, 2020) I have no idea whether or not Petula Clark’s “Downtown” (1964) connection with the 2020 Christmas morning Nashville explosion will resonate in news media.
I’m likely to remember that the song was one of those played by the RV camper. But that may be because I’m only a few years older than the fellow who died in the explosion.
“The mid-1960s classic ‘Downtown’ by Petula Clark played from the RV parked in downtown Nashville prior to the explosion that damaged more than 40 buildings and injured at least three people Christmas morning.
“‘What I remembered was “downtown, where the lights shine bright,”‘ Metro Officer Tyler Luellen said of the song playing, as he and his fellow officers worked fast to evacuate people in the area of Second Avenue North and Commerce Street….
“…The officer said he looked up the song later and discovered it was ‘Downtown’ by Petula Clark, the chart-topping song that begins, ‘when you’re alone and life is making you lonely, you can always go downtown.’…”
Being around the age of the chief and only suspect, and recognizing a song he apparently selected, does not make me a public menace. I am far too fond of breathing to consider suicide, and that’s something I may — and probably will — discuss (much) later.
Memories and associations I’ve accumulated make lyrics like these poignant in the ‘Christmas explosion’ context:
“…Don’t hang around and let your problems surround you
There are movie shows
Downtown
Maybe you know some little places to go to
Where they never close
Downtown…”
(“Downtown,” Tony Hatch, sung by Petula Clark (1964) via AZLyrics.com)
This is a bad situation. But it could have been a lot worse.
“A parked camper van exploded in the US city of Nashville, Tennessee, early on Christmas morning, injuring three people and knocking out communications systems across the state.
“Possible human remains were later found near the blast site, US media report….
“…Officers responding to reports of gunshots just before 06:00 (12:00 GMT) found a camper van broadcasting a warning message to leave the area….
“…CCTV footage posted on YouTube appeared to show the moments before the explosion, when a warning was broadcast, saying, ‘If you can hear this message, evacuate now’. A loud bang follows and flames and smoke fill the screen….
That “If you can hear this…” announcement is the weirdest bit of this incident, from my perspective. Folks who do newsworthy bombings don’t, as a rule, seem to be concerned about hurting or killing others. Sometimes that seems to be the whole point of a bombing.
As of late afternoon, I’d heard that only three folks got hurt. Possibly because Nashville law enforcement started evacuation nearby buildings shortly before the camper exploded. Then I read about possible human remains.
Speculation and Uncertainty
I’d hoped that three non-life-threatening injuries was the extent of casualties. As of early evening of Christmas Day, that seems unlikely. “…Possible human remains…” does not sound hopeful.
Motive is also an apparently-unknown part of the puzzle.
Telcom Connection? Protection Racket??
The camper was near a building owned by AT&T, which may explain the post-boom communications problems, and that company has a nearby office tower.
Maybe someone got upset over their phone bill, or thought they were striking a blow for something related to telephone, television and/or Internet usage.
Maybe one of the business owners on that part of 2nd street hadn’t made their payments with proper promptness and respect.
Nixing Naughty Nashville Nightlife???
And maybe the motive has something to do with the nature of several businesses on that block. News accounts referred to Nashville’s nightlife. Signage I saw in some photos suggested that they were naughty establishments.
I lived in San Francisco for 18 months, so they didn’t strike me as all that naughty. But someone with high, and fractured, moral character might feel otherwise.
I really hope my ‘bomb the naughty places’ scenario isn’t near the mark. And that’s another topic.
I noticed “Nashville explosion” headlines in my news feed this afternoon, and am writing this just a few hours later. Just about everything I know about the incident is in this post.
Maybe the motive(s), damage, injuries, probable death or some other detail will warrant my writing more. Then again, maybe not. On the whole, I’m hoping for “not.”
I’ve talked about bombs and and people acting badly before:
(My corner of small town America around noon, Christmas Eve.)
It’s Christmas Eve afternoon here in Sauk Centre, Minnesota.
Weather, Wind Chill, Memory and Deciding
Wednesday’s blizzard became a wind chill advisory, which has since retreated to lands north and west of my home.
And I’ve decided to stop trying to remember the topic or topics I had in mind last night.
All I remember is that I had more than one in mind, and that they were “slightly more Christmas-themed stuff.” I might not even have remembered that detail, if I hadn’t written it down. Or, more accurately, keyed it in.
I could fret over that lapse of memory.
Since I’ll be 70 next year, I could emulate gerascophobia — it’s a real word — and write an earnest epistle on the virtues of some fad diet or vices of targeted advertising.
But I won’t. My brain is good for quite a few tasks. But rote memory isn’t one of them, and never has been.
So I’ll decide that whatever the “Christmas-themed stuff” was, I didn’t think it was important enough to write down. Or key in. And probably wasn’t worth remembering.
And if I had written/typed/keyed the ideas, recording them in written form, I’d probably remember them without reference to what I’d written.
Which is why I made copious notes during my college classes.
I’d occasionally read through my notebooks before midterms and finals. But after the first academic cycle, I’d learned that writing ideas down as I was hearing them fixed them in my long-term memory. With the occasional panic-inspiring exceptions.
Tis the Season to be Kitschy
(From Verizon & Macy’s, used w/o permission.)
(Nothing says “Christmas” like self-propelled bowling shoes.)
Weather, however, doesn’t have much to do with Advent or Christmas.
Neither does memory, text anxiety or — a polar Wookiee?!
That bit of weirdness is a Victorian Christmas greeting card sold by L. Prang and Company: a visionary pioneer in a field which has enriched our culture with kitsch.
And made Hallmark productions a schmaltzy symbol for some, a cornucopia of comfort for others.
My attitude is somewhere in the middle.
I like schmaltz and kitsch. In moderation. Which is, I figure, why I enjoy the Macy’s Thanksgiving Day parade.
But I think there’s more to Christmas than Brobdingnagian bowling shoes and 16-foot self-propelled pins.
Christmas specials, some of them, come closer to the mark with their “and the true meaning of Christmas is” — being nice to neighbors, warm family feelings, something like that.
And one, “A Charlie Brown Christmas,” got it right. I talked about the Peanuts Christmas special a few years back. (December 24, 2017)
And probably will again, but not today. Or, very likely, during this Christmas season. Which, since I’m a Catholic, begins today.
“…That’s What Christmas is All About….”
I talked about octaves, Advent and Christmastide last year.
Along with a quick look at what’s changed and what hasn’t over the last couple millennia. (December 31, 2019)
What we do each year, and how we do it, matters. But it’s not nearly as important as why we get together and celebrate.
“The angel said to them, ‘Do not be afraid; for behold, I proclaim to you good news of great joy that will be for all the people.
“For today in the city of David a savior has been born for you who is Messiah and Lord.
“And this will be a sign for you: you will find an infant wrapped in swaddling clothes and lying in a manger.’
“And suddenly there was a multitude of the heavenly host with the angel, praising God and saying:
“‘Glory to God in the highest
“and on earth peace to those on whom his favor rests.'”
(Luke 2:10–14)
Linus Van Pelt: [Linus picks up his blanket and walks back towards Charlie Brown]
“That’s what Christmas is all about, Charlie Brown.”
(“15 of the Most Memorable Quotes from A Charlie Brown Christmas,” Katie Robinson, Town and Country Magazine (November 24, 2020)
Christmas and COVID-19, a Memorable Combination
(Our Lady of Angels, my parish church, second Saturday of Christmas: January 2, 2015.)
No Christmas is exactly like another. But this year’s is more distinctive than most.
The COVID-19 pandemic has made 2020 a memorable year.
My parish church doesn’t have our traditional Christmas tree. The manger scene and ‘starlit sky’ display isn’t up. And I don’t envy the folks who make sure we don’t exceed the allowed number of folks in the sanctuary.
But instead of complaining about that, or indulging in an anguished lament over the decline and fall of everything and everyone — I’ll close with something almost completely different.
Update: Christmas Afternoon, December 25, 2020
My parish’s Christmas tree was up this morning. So was our manger scene and starry backdrop. Dummkopf that I occasionally am, I’d forgotten that they’re not in place until Christmas. Neither was the one in my house. It’s up, too, and that’s something for another day.
Enjoying Another Christmas
(Merry Christmas, with the “Chumley, the Elf Who Slept Through Christmas” TV special.)
It’s now Christmas Eve evening here in central Minnesota, and early Christmas morning a few time zones east of there.
“Eve evening???” That sounds, and probably is, redundantly reiterative. Never mind.
My family, following our customs, opened some of our presents an hour or so ago.
We’re keeping others under the tree, to be opened when a daughter, son-in-law and granddaughter come.
This Christmas is particularly merry, in the ‘festivity and rejoicing’ sense, time for me because I’m here.
My September-October hospital interlude helped me appreciate the daily miracle of living. (October 5, 2020)
I’d planned on talking about that “Merry Christmas” scene, with it’s “Chumley” Christmas special. But that flight of fancy must wait for another day. Or, more likely, another year.
Which isn’t that far ahead. New Years Eve is Thursday of next week. And that’s another topic.
Meanwhile, here’s the usual list of somewhat-related posts:
Something new each Saturday.
Life, the universe and my circumstances permitting. I'm focusing on 'family stories' at the moment. ("A Change of Pace: Family Stories" (11/23/2024))
Blog - David Torkington
Spiritual theologian, author and speaker, specializing in prayer, Christian spirituality and mystical theology [the kind that makes sense-BHG]
I was born in 1951. I'm a husband, father and grandfather. One of the kids graduated from college in December, 2008, and is helping her husband run businesses and raise my granddaughter; another is a cartoonist and artist; #3 daughter is a writer; my son is developing a digital game with #3 and #1 daughters. I'm also a writer and artist.