UAPs/UFOs: Collect Data, THEN Draw Conclusions

Posted on September 23, 2023 by Brian H. Gill
Collage: space alien movie promotional art.
Space aliens in the movies: not what I’ll be talking about.

Sci-fi movie poster collage; including 'Plan 9 from Outer Space,' 'Earth vs. the Flying Saucers,' 'The Thing.'I’m about as sure as I can be, that space aliens have not:

  • Replaced my neighbors with pod people
  • Been held in a secret laboratory
  • Plotted to conquer our fair planet

I do, however, think that life might exist on other worlds.

And even if it doesn’t, studying phenomena that we don’t quite understand strikes me as a good idea.

At this point, having seen what I’d written and the first two pictures, my oldest daughter said “‘Not a normal Catholic blog!'” More accurately, she wrote it. We’d been enjoying our daily online chat. And that’s another topic.

Well, she’s right. This isn’t a normal Catholic blog — whatever that is — and this isn’t a normal Catholic blog post.

It isn’t even all of what I had planned for this week. I’ll explain that, then talk about NASA’s new UAP report, attitudes, assumptions; and, finally, touch on the legacy of “Killers from Space”.

What I’d Planned, What’s Ready This Week

NASA photo and text from UAP landing page: 'Members of the Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena Independent Study Team gather for a public meeting in May 2023. Back row, left to right: Walter Scott, Warren Randolph, Reggie Brothers, Shelley Wright, Scott Kelly, Anamaria Berea, Mike Gold. Front row, left to right: Nadia Drake, Paula Bontempi, Federica Bianco, David Grinspoon, Karlin Toner, Josh Semeter, Jennifer Bus, David Spergel, Dan Evans.' (May 31, 2023, screenshot taken June 13, 2023Back in June, I discussed UFOs, UAPs, NASA’s plans for studying stuff we don’t understand yet, and why I thought it’s a good idea.

Last week, NASA released the “UAP Independent Study Team Report”.1

So, after a quick look, I talked about it. Wrote about it, actually; and said that taking a second look would probably be worth the effort: “this time actually reading it: not just skimming for something I can quote.”

That was then, this is now. I’ve read through the thing. All 31 pages: 36 including the front and back sheets, which are worth looking at. NASA did a nice job with illustrations.

Which reminds me. Here’s a link to the report. It’s an Acrobat/pdf file on the nasa.gov site.

I’d planned on taking notes as I went along, then discussing the main points.

I’ve been running a fever, and feeling distinctly sub-par, so that’s not gonna happen.

Instead, here’s what I see as a few important issues; along with why I still think studying phenomena we don’t understand is a good idea.

Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP): Stigma and Sprites

Screenshot of CartoonStock Ltd., selection from 27,593 results of 'ufo crackpot' search. (CartoonStock Ltd.)
UFO cartoons, a selection from CartoonStock Ltd.

“…The study of Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP) presents a unique scientific opportunity that demands a rigorous, evidence-based approach. Addressing this challenge will require new and robust data acquisition methods, advanced analysis techniques, a systematic reporting framework and reducing reporting stigma. NASA – with its extensive expertise in these domains and global reputation for scientific openness – is in an excellent position to contribute to UAP studies within the broader whole-of-government framework led by the All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office (AARO)….”
(“UAP Independent Study Team Report“, Final Report, NASA Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena Independent Study Team (September 14, 2023) p. 3)
[emphasis mine]

That goal, “reducing reporting stigma”, strikes me as a very good idea.

NASA’s “extensive expertise … and global reputation” — the statement’s probably accurate, but the tone felt a trifle overly-complimentary. Accurate, though, I hope; and I’ll leave it at that.

One more excerpt, then moving along to the idea that folks shouldn’t be punished for making accurate reports:

“…A particularly promising avenue for deeper integration within a systematic, evidenced-based framework for is the NASA’s Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS), which NASA administers for the FAA. This system is a confidential, voluntary, non-punitive reporting system that receives safety reports from pilots, air traffic controllers, dispatchers, cabin crew, ground operators, maintenance technicians…”
(“UAP Independent Study Team Report“, Final Report, NASA Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena Independent Study Team (September 14, 2023) p. 18)
[emphasis mine]

Now, why all this fuss about “stigma” and “non-punitive”?

Accurate Reporting May End Your Career — or — Sprites and Assumptions

Stephane Vetter (TWAN)'s photo: red sprite, an uncommon sort of lightning an image with a remarkable level of detail. Most thunderstorms do not produce sprites. Via 'UAP Independent Study Team Report' (2023) used w/o permission.Thunderstorm sprites are real these days.2

They’re a rare phenomenon, and didn’t exist during my youth. Not officially.

I remember reading an article about the things, back when scientists were confirming that strange lights really do shoot up from the tops of thunderstorms. Rarely.

The article discussed what had happened to a few folks who had seen sprites, hadn’t taken pictures, but had reported what they saw anyway.

One of them was an American soldier who’d been standing guard at night. As I recall, he’d been told to report anything unusual. So, when he saw lights shoot up from the top of a distant thunderstorm, he told his superior what he’d seen.

This was back in the Sixties, give or take. So “obviously” he’d been on drugs. Or maybe he was one of those crazy guys who sees things that aren’t there. Either way, any plans he might have had for a military career went phut.

Maybe that was an isolated incident. I’ve looked for that article, or another piece discussing the inappropriately-diligent soldier and related situations. So far, I’ve found nothing. Not surprising, since it was around a half-century back now.

What impresses me is how much has been transferred to humanity’s digitized archives, and that’s yet another topic.

“Continuous Darts of Light…Resembling Rockets More Than Lightning”

STS-32 Shuttle mission payload bay TV camera's video image: a single stratospheric luminous discharge appearing to move upward into clear night air. (April 28, 1990)In 20/20 hindsight, we’ve found examples of folks (probably) seeing sprites, jets, ELVES, and other rare phenomena, going back at least to 1886.

“…Throughout the historical scientific literature, there are sprinklings of eyewitness accounts of unusual ‘lightning’ observed in the clear air above nighttime thunderstorms. The descriptions use phases such as ‘continuous darts of light… ascended to a considerable altitude, resembling rockets more than lightning.’ (MacKenzie and Toynbee, 1886), ‘a luminous trail shot up to 15 degrees or so, about as fast as, or faster than, a rocket’ (Everett, 1903), ‘a long weak streamer of a reddish hue’ (Malan, 1937), ‘flames appearing to rise from the top of the cloud’ (Ashmore, 1950), or ‘the discharge assumed a shape similar to roots of a tree in an inverted position’ (Wood, 1951). Partly because these eyewitness reports of unusual ‘lightning’ appearing above thunderstorms were never captured on film, the lightning science community generally ignored them. The lack of an established vocabulary and the existence of several distinctive phenomena contributed to the variation in the verbal descriptions….”
(“The Role of the Space Shuttle Videotapes in the Discovery of Sprites, Jets, and Elves“; William L. Boeck, Otha H. Vaughan, Jr., Richard J. Blakeslee, Bernard Vonnegut, Marx Brook (ca. 1996?) via NASA)

Ignoring isolated reports of rare phenomena may have made sense.

Particularly after 1888, when George Eastman started marketing his Kodak camera.

After that, observers might be expected to have their Kodak #1 readily at hand when witnessing a once-in-a-lifetime event. Or maybe not.

“The lack of an established vocabulary” didn’t help, and neither did the fact that observers were describing several different phenomena.

In any case, sprites and other high-altitude electrical phenomena left a trail of ignored observations and penalized witnesses. Until scientists in Minnesota and elsewhere started actively seeking the weird things.

Taking video cameras into space didn’t hurt.3 It would take a fervent disciple of ignorance to claim that camcorders can hallucinate. And that’s yet again another topic.

Look! Up in the Sky! It’s a Bird! It’s a Plane! No! It’s a — Thing

U. S. Department of Defense image: an unidentified object in South Asia with an apparent atmospheric wake or cavitation. From footage taken by an MQ-9. Tentatively identified as a commercial aircraft, with apparent cavitation produced by video compression. All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office, via NASA, used w/o permission.
Something odd in footage taken by a UAV. From “UAP Independent Study Team Report”. (2023)

The NASA UAP report talks about technology and information sharing systems that would have been science fiction in my youth.

I’d planned on talking about that. As I said earlier, it’s been one of those weeks; so I won’t.

Even with today’s tech, sometimes all we’ve got to work with is a grainy image: like that “South Asian Object”.

I don’t know how the All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office (AARO) decided that it was probably a commercial aircraft, recorded in a compressed video image.

The apparent cavitation does strike me as being similar to what I’ve seen in over-compressed digital images. But that sort-of-bullet-shaped blob doesn’t look much like an aircraft to me: commercial or otherwise.

On the other hand, I don’t have access to the original files; and I sure don’t know how the UAV’s system works.4 So I’ll willingly assume that the “assessed as a likely commercial aircraft” label makes sense.

And I sure wouldn’t assume that a fuzzy blob is proof that space aliens are in our skies.

Sprites and Flight Safety: What You Don’t Know Can Hurt You

Eastview's image: first color image of a sprite, obtained during a 1994 NASA/University of Alaska aircraft campaign to study sprites. (1994) via Wikipedia, used w/o permissionSo how come NASA and the Department of Defense have been studying UAPs?

A big reason mentioned in that NASA report is safety.

Another excerpt. The way I’ve been feeling, this isn’t the time to try paraphrasing.

“…ODNI assess that the observed increase in the reporting rate is partially due to a better understanding of the possible threats that UAP may represent—either as flight safety hazards or as potential adversary collection platforms. This is partially due to reduced stigma surrounding UAP reporting….”
(“UAP Independent Study Team Report“, Final Report, NASA Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena Independent Study Team (September 14, 2023) p. 3)
[emphasis mine]

Sorting out what “potential adversary collection platforms” means in governmentalese is beyond me at the moment.

“Flight safety hazards”, however, is pretty straightforward. I haven’t found much about what happens when a vehicle interacts with, say, a sprite. But I figure getting up close and personal with any sort of massive electrical discharge is not good news.

In 1989, for example, a NASA high-altitude balloon dropped its payload while drifting over a thunderstorm.

Odds are, it tangled with a sprite: although that term wasn’t used as a label for the cold plasma phenomenon until 1993.5

Hate Mail, Stigma and Speculation

Frame from W. Lee Wilder's 'Killers From Space': Peter Graves surrounded by B movie space aliens. (1954)Ignoring an apparently one-off report with no supporting evidence is one thing.

Punishing someone for making such a report, or sending hate mail to folks who might study such reports?

That’s something else.

One more excerpt (it’s the last one this week, honest!).

“…NASA’s public announcement of its UAP Independent Study Team membership was met with interest and spurred both positive and negative feedback. At least one scientist serving on the study team reported receiving negative (hate) mail from colleagues due to their membership. Others were ridiculed and criticized on social media. Study Team members also noted firsthand knowledge of colleagues who were warned to stay away from research in areas like extraterrestrial technosignatures, which could damage their scientific credibility and promotion potential. These experiences further confirm the negative stigma associated with studying unusual or unexplained phenomena….”
(“UAP Independent Study Team Report“, Final Report, NASA Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena Independent Study Team (September 14, 2023) pp. 26-27)
[emphasis mine]

Warning someone to stay away from studying extraterrestrial technosignatures, lightning, smallpox, or phlogiston — could be reasonable. I can see how a thoughtful colleague might try steering a friend away from career suicide.

But spitting the sort of venom I imagine in the ridicule and hate mail mentioned in NASA’s “UAP Independent Study Team Report”? That doesn’t seem so friendly.

I don’t know what’s going on inside the heads of cyberbullies, academic vigilantes, and folks who embrace the ‘my mind is made up, don’t confuse me with facts’ philosophy.

But that won’t keep me from speculating.

Part of what’s in play may be rooted in cinematic presentations like “Invaders from Mars”, “Killers from Space”, and “Plan 9 from Outer Space”.

Consciously or not, a person might file “extraterrestrial intelligence” under “schlock movies”, cross-indexed with “stupid kid stuff” and “crackpot notions”. It might even make sense.

To someone who hadn’t fully embraced the possibility that serious ideas can be presented in monumentally tacky formats, at any rate.

Nottsuo's 'Shoggoth.' (2016)Then there’s Lovecraft’s “terrifying vistas of reality, and of our frightful position therein”, and perceived existential threats — which I’ll leave for next week.

The perceived existential threats, anyway.

Finally, I think learning more about this vast, ancient and wonder-packed universe is a good idea.6

Starting with a conclusion, and then picking data that supports that conclusion — is anything but.

Haven’t had enough of my writing? There’s more:

1 That NASA UAP/UFO report:

2 Electrical phenomena — or — static cling on a cosmic scale:

3 A little science, a little history:

4 This is not the world I grew up on:

5 Close encounters of the sparky kind:

6 Schlock, silliness, science and me:

Posted in Exoplanets and Aliens, Science News, Series | Tagged , , , , | 4 Comments

Silly Headlines and Space Aliens, Serious Science and UAPs

Posted on September 16, 2023 by Brian H. Gill
Artist's concept; NASA, CSA, ESA, J. Olmsted (STScI), Science: Nikku Madhusudhan (IoA) Madhusudhan (Cambridge University); via NASA.gov: 'This illustration shows what exoplanet K2-18 b could look like based on science data. K2-18 b, an exoplanet 8.6 times as massive as Earth, orbits the cool dwarf star K2-18 in the habitable zone and lies 120 light years from Earth.' (September 11, 2023)
Exoplanet K2-18 b, and artist’s concept, based on current science data. (September 11, 2023)

Monday, I wondered what I was going to write about this week.

Then I read that scientists found methane and carbon dioxide in a not-really-Earth-like planet’s atmosphere — and saw a silly headline or two.

Normally, that’d be more than enough for me to work with. But this hasn’t been a normal week for me. Actually, for me, I’m not sure that any week could reasonably be called “normal”, and that’s another topic.

Anyway, K2-18’s atmosphere is mostly on hold for now. Instead, I’ll talk about (alleged) space alien bodies, Nazca Lines and (human) mummies. And I’ll take a look at NASA’s UAP report. A quick look. It’s been one of those weeks.

Nice Weather, a Drought, and Me

U.S. Drought Monitor map: Current Drought in Minnesota. (September 12, 2023; released September 14, 2023)
Current Drought in Minnesota. (September 12, 2023)

Fact is, I’ve been feeling sub-par. Maybe it’s because we’ve had several days running of no smoke in the air, and temperatures that weren’t outrageously high.

On top of that, if my memory serves, this summer has passed with no tornado watches or warnings. Northwest of here, yes. Affecting Sauk Centre, not that I remember.

That’s — odd: maybe not where you are, but I live in central Minnesota. Our weather is not, usually, that uneventful.

Then on Wednesday, while checking news coverage of that ‘methane’ exoplanet, I saw this headline: “Two mummified alien corpses have just been unboxed in Mexico”.

I was faced with a choice.

I could either try talking about biosignatures and thermodynamic critical points.

Or I could chat about space aliens, the news, planets orbiting other stars, and NASA’s “Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena Independent Study Report”.

It was Thursday afternoon by that time, so I didn’t really have much choice.

Although what scientists found in K2-18b’s atmosphere isn’t a sure sign that life exists on other worlds, I think it’s worth a serious look. And, just as important, it’s something I want to look at while I’m consistently staying in focus. Which I’m not this week.

So I’ll be taking a quick romp through a selection from this week’s news: including NASA’s UAP report.

Now that I think of it, though, we have had a significant weather event.

Are having, actually. This summer’s drought is still in progress.

Still, it could be worse in and around Sauk Centre. Our conditions are only “Moderate Drought”. Folks elsewhere in Minnesota are dealing with “Extreme” and “Exceptional” rain deficiencies.

Last Sunday we expressed thanks for the few drops we did get, and asked for more.

“Two mummified alien corpses…” ???

Selected Google News search results. (K2-18b) (September 13, 2023)
K2-18b in Google News: three headlines from three news sources. (September 13, 2023)

I am not making this up. When I typed K2-18b into the Google News search function, those three items were among the top results.

In fairness, much of what Google News showed me that time actually did have to do with K2-18b, exoplanets, or at least astronomy.

That “mummified alien corpses” thing, though, caught my attention. I mentioned that I’ve been having a time staying focused this week?

Seems that Dazed is a British lifestyle magazine. I’d suspected it was something along the lines of The Onion, but apparently not.1

On the other hand, just in case “Two mummified alien corpses…” wasn’t a lifestyle magazine’s spoof/satire, I looked for something from an outfit I was more familiar with.

“Experts”, Extraterrestrials, and Exclamation Marks

Henry Romero's/Reuters' photo: alleged space-alien body, displayed during an unidentified flying objects briefing at the San Lazaro legislative palace in Mexico City.(September 12, 2023) via NPR, used w/o permission.
More (alleged) space aliens: exhibited September 12, 2023, in Mexico City to a congressional UFO briefing.

“A Mexican ufologist claims to show 2 alien corpses to Mexico’s Congress“
Eyder Peralta, NPR (September 13, 2023)

“Mexico’s Congress heard testimony from experts who study extraterrestrials on Tuesday.

“And the hearing started with a huge surprise.

“Jaime Maussan, a self-described ufologist, brought two caskets into the congressional chambers. As Maussan spoke, two men uncovered the caskets, to reveal two bodies….

“… Maussan said they were found in Peru in 2017 and are estimated to be 1,000 years old. One of the bodies had been pregnant, he claimed….

“…Speaking under oath, Maussan claimed the bodies were nonhuman.

“Maussan and others have presented similar claims about alleged alien remains in the past. Scientists have dismissed them as either ancient Peruvian mummies or manipulated mummies.

“During Tuesday’s hearing, José de Jesús Zalce Benítez, a forensic expert and a military doctor, walked the Congress through scans of the alleged alien bodies.

“He claimed the alleged aliens had big brains and big eyes — ‘which allowed for a wide stereoscopic vision’ — and they lacked teeth, so they likely only drank and did not chew….”

First off, about “…testimony from experts who study extraterrestrials…”.

There are scientists who study conditions on other planets and in the universe in general. Some of them are learning how life might develop and grow on other worlds.

'Nouvelles découvertes dans la Lune....' A lithograph from 'Great Astronomical Discoveries', The New York Sun, translated into French. (1835) Artwork probably by Benjamin Day. Part of the 'Great Moon Hoax of 1835'. 'Lunar animals and other objects Discovered by Sir John Herschel in his observatory at the Cape of Good Hope and copied from sketches in the Edinburgh Journal of Science.' Benjamin Henry Day, Library of Congress, via Wikipedia, used w/o permission.But, so far, we have not positively identified a single living critter that lives on another planet: never mind big-brained space aliens who unaccountably turned up dead in Peru.

And, by the way, Sir John Herschel did not discover humanoid bat-people on the Moon in the 1830s.

But — what if ‘they’ know space aliens exist, and are keeping it a secret? ‘They’ won’t admit that extraterrestrials exist, which proves that space aliens exist, and that there’s a vast conspiracy to keep it a secret!!!!!

Well, no. Although that sort of thing could make a good story. And has.

One of the problems I have with that particular conspiracy theory is the matter of motive.

Diorama of a Grey space alien at the Roswell UFO Museum; Roswell, New Mexico, USA; G. W. Dodson. (2011)Let’s imagine that NASA spotted an extraterrestrial vehicle landing in the American Southwest, back in the 1970s.

They promptly hustled the crew and their damaged craft into a secret underground base: and the space aliens are still there. (They’re the ones who told us how to make digital television.)

And — NASA has been keeping their existence secret for a half-century.

That narrative’s craziest part, for me, is NASA’s well-earned reputation as a publicity-minded outfit.

I don’t see them keeping quiet about what would have been a very hot news item, and knowledge that would have made space research funding a much easier sell.

Then there’s the matter of how many people would be involved in a cover-up like that, and the odds of keeping it quiet for decades.2

“Nazca Mummies” and —

Brian H. Gill's screenshot: Google search José de Jesús Zalce Benítez (21:25 UTC, September 13, 2023)
Screenshot: rapidly changing Google Search results (21:25 UTC, September 13, 2023)

A Google search for José de Jesús Zalce Benítez, forensic expert and military doctor, gave me that “It looks like the results below are changing quickly” notice. The IMDb Podcast Episode result, “MOMIAS DE NAZCA PT.3 ‘EL FINAL”, was slightly intriguing.

“Momias de Nazca…” is Spanish. In English it’d be “Nazca Mummies Pt. 3 ‘The End'”.

That’s all I learned about Dr. Benítez and the “Nazca mummies”.

Maybe they’re remains of folks who were interred in what we call the Chauchilla Cemetery. It’s south of Nazca, Peru, hasn’t been used for upwards of a millennium, and was “discovered” by outsiders in the 1920s.

A (highly) fictionalized version of the Chauchilla Cemetery features in “Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull”.

If the “Nazca mummies” Dr. Benítez discussed are from Chauchilla Cemetery, they’re very human and very dead. I don’t know how they’d feel about what’s happened to their remains. And that’s yet another topic.

If they’re the telepathic dimension-hopping aliens of that Indiana Jones film —

Well, no. I do not think so. Not at all.

Oddly enough, though, crystal skulls are real. Skulls. Plural. Allegedly from pre-Columbian Mesoamerica; possibly from Germany, starting around the mid-19th century.3

— The Skull of Doom
Michelle Pemberton/IndyStar's photo: Bill Homann, the Mitchell-Hedges skull/The Skull of Doom's current caretaker of The Mitchell-Hedges skull, also known as The Skull of Doom, on Monday, July 24, 2023, in Indiana. Homann inherited the skull from wife Anna Mitchell-Hedges, the adopted daughter of British adventurer and author F.A. Mitchell-Hedges, who claimed to have found the skull in while exploring Lubaantun with her father in 1924. (July 24, 2023) used w/o permission.
Bill Homann and “The Skull of Doom”, Michelle Pemberton/IndyStar. (2023)”

Then there’s The Skull of Doom, once owned by F. A. Mitchell-Hedges, English adventurer, traveler, and writer, who told increasingly colorful stories.4

The point is: finding verifiable, available-for-study, space alien bodies would be a huge news item. It might even, briefly, outshine the latest Washington gossip.

It’d also raise serious ethical questions. And maybe diplomatic ones, if folks related to or otherwise interested in what happened to the travelers started nosing around.

Speculation and the Nazca Lines

NASA/GSFC/MITI/ERSDAC/JAROS, and U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team's image: Nazca Lines, seen from space. (2002)Knew I forgot something.

The Nazca Lines.

Between 2,500 and 1,500 years back, folks dug complicated line art into part of the Nazca Desert.

Since plotting out and digging those huge patterns was far more than an idle afternoon’s work, I figure they had good reasons for making them. What those reasons were is a good question.

A whole bunch of scholars came up with more-or-less-plausible answers.

And Erich von Däniken said some were landing strips set up by ancient astronauts. Others, he said, were replicas made by the locals, in case the space aliens came back.5

I don’t think so. But von Däniken’s idea has a certain appeal.

So I’ll add a bit of “ancient” lore to the Nazca story.

The reason the Nazca Lines are so complicate is that only some are ancient astronaut landing strips. Others are commercial messages: like “Eat at Zlorpfloop’s! Best Glargpoo This Side of Aozlip”.

No, I really do not think so. But it might make a good story.

K2-18b: Carbon Dioxide, Methane, and — Plankton?!

More selected Google News search results. (K2-18b) (September 13, 2023)
K2-18b in Google News: more headlines. (September 13, 2023) (“Plankton”? I am not making that up.)

K2-18 is smaller and cooler than our star. It’s 125 light-years out, in the general direction of Iota and Sigma Leonis. The star has two planets that we know of: K2-18 b and c.

We also know that K2-18 b has an atmosphere that’s mostly hydrogen, and that it’s roughly eight and a half times Earth’s mass. How scientists worked out its density, that I haven’t learned.

Yahoo/Sport’s “hints at life molecule” headline is accurate, as far as it goes, since carbon dioxide and methane are both molecules and associated with Earth’s biochemistry.

PCMag Middle East — How their reporters and/or editors came up with “plankton”, that is a question. Maybe they heard that zooplankton makes carbon dioxide: and figured that where there’s carbon dioxide there must be plankton.

Or maybe we’re seeing the start of “Great Moon Hoax: The Legend Continues”.6

Anyway, I’m planning on getting back to K2-18 b when I’ve learned more.

And I’d prefer that “science” news be taken as seriously as sports news, here in America.

If it was the other way around, I figure we’d hear sportscasters and commentators discussing home runs scored by the Atlanta Falcons, and wondering why there wasn’t a Zamboni performance during a Miami Heat game’s halftime show.

Existing UAP Reports: Acknowledging Possibilities

Screenshot from my Google News feed. (September 14, 2023)NASA released their “UAP Independent Study Team Report” and named a UAP director on Thursday.

The report has 31 pages, 36 if you include the front and back covers and pages. I’ve skimmed through it.

More accurately, I’ve skimmed the executive summary, read the main headings and read a few paragraphs on my way to “Overall Conclusions and Recommendations” and “Work Products: Discussion”.

I’m not an editor for The New York Times, so I won’t tell you what you’re supposed to know about “what the UAP Study Does and Doesn’t Say”.

Instead, I’ll quote part of the study’s last paragraph, emphasizing a few phrases. And give you a link to the study itself.

“UAP Independent Study Team Report“
Final Report
NASA Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena Independent Study Team (September 14, 2023)

“…At this point there is no reason to conclude that existing UAP reports have an extraterrestrial source. However, if we acknowledge that as one possibility, then those objects must have traveled through our solar system to get here. Just as the galaxy does not stop at the outskirts of the solar system, the solar system also includes Earth and its environs. Thus, there is an intellectual continuum between extrasolar technosignatures, solar system SETI, and potential unknown alien technology operating in Earth’s atmosphere. If we recognize the plausibility of any of these, then we should recognize that all are at least plausible.“
[emphasis mine]

The “UAP Independent Study Team Report” probably warrants another go-through, this time actually reading it: not just skimming for something I can quote.

I’m hoping that the UAP section of NASA’s Science Mission Directorate doesn’t fall into the upcoming presidential pig-wrestling pit.

That may depend on whether some wannabe Solon gets fans riled up over taxpayer dollars being wasted on looking for flying saucers.

I’ve talked about UAPs, UFOs, NASA and getting a grip before, back in June.

It’s Friday afternoon as I’m writing this, so here’s a quick look at why I’m not appalled that NASA and other agencies are studying UAPs.

First, I think NASA’s “Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena” extension of UAP is better than “Unidentified Aerial Phenomena”.

Mainly because, by definition, both are currently unidentified.

UAPs may be “aerial”, but again — they’re unidentified.

Some may not be, strictly speaking, “aerial”. We don’t know. And learning about them won’t be made any easier by deciding from the get-go that they must be aerial and/or atmospheric phenomena.

Besides, NASA’s activities have long since extended far beyond Earth’s atmosphere.7

Attitudes

Ball lightning entering through a chimney, from Hartwig's 'The Aerial World'. (1886)
Ball lightning, from Dr. Georg Hartwig’s “The Aerial World”. (1886)

As for acknowledging that a UAP might be a “technosignature” — tangible evidence of past or present technology — to me, that makes sense.

Insisting that the Wolfsegg Iron, AKA The Salzburg Cube, was a precision-machined perfect cube that obviously had been made by space aliens? Not only was the description I ran across in my youth factually wrong, but the conclusion was wildly unwarranted.

But taking unwarranted conclusions and outright hoaxes as a guide, and insisting that technosignatures must not exist: that does not make sense. Not to me.

I’d much rather have scientists avoid adopting a traditional “I do not understand this, so it does not exist” attitude.

Ball lightning8 may be a case in point for the folly of dismissing odd phenomena.

I’ve looked up how scientists have been studying ball lightning, and was surprised at what I didn’t find. The accounts I read don’t include beliefs that ‘ball lightning doesn’t exist and neither do thunderstorm sprites’.

Thing is, I remember that belief. Those beliefs. And so did my father. I can understand it: ball lightning, for example, was and is a rare phenomenon. I suspect it didn’t help that many witnesses were German or Russian. I’m drifting off-topic again.

Moving along.

Questions

Walt Kelly's Pogo (June 20, 1959) via WIST, used w/o permission.
Pork Pine and “a mighty soberin’ thought”. (June 1959)

XKCD: 'The world's first ant colony to achieve sentience calls off its search for us.One of the main problems with technosignatures is that there isn’t a consensus on just what one would be.

Radio signals seemed like an obvious “we are not alone” sign, but apparently that’s getting a second and may third look.

I’ll agree that modulated electromagnetic transmissions would be an effective way of communicating between stars.

But somehow, I rather strongly suspect that we haven’t learned everything there is to know about how this universe works. And maybe something we haven’t learned yet is an even easier, faster and clearer communication channel.

The big question isn’t, however, what a technosignature might or might not be. Or even if we have neighbors in this vast and ancient universe.

It’s can we have neighbors.

Based on what we’re learning, I’d say the answer is “yes”.

But must we have neighbors? Or, on the other hand, must we be the only people here?

I don’t think so, either way. Besides, the decision isn’t up to me.

“Our God is in heaven and does whatever he wills.”
(Psalms 115:3)

I’ve talked about this before, and probably will again:

1 Dazed and The Onion:

2 Science, logic and DTV:

3 Archaeology, artefacts and a movie:

4 Nifty story, dubious background:

5 Ancient and current land art, plus a nifty notion:

6 Stars, planets, microcritters, and a famous hoax:

7 UAPs and NASA:

8 A real phenomenon, a new term, and a mostly-iron lump:

Posted in Discursive Detours, Exoplanets and Aliens, Journal, Science News, Series | Tagged , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Prescription Quest: Another Month’s Epic Saga

Posted on September 9, 2023 by Brian H. Gill
My methylphenidate prescription, with one day left. (June 10, 2021)
My methylphenidate prescription, which must be re-authorized each month.

First, the good news.

Two days of this month’s quest for a prescribed medication have passed without incident.

I’ve asked my pharmacy to request legal authorization: so that they may sell me another month’s supply of methylphenidate. They’ll also be looking for a supplier who has enough in stock.

If all is in order, that sale may take place: but only after what I have on hand runs out.

Around the middle of next week, I may know whether or not the current request for authorization got lost in the mangle.

After that, there’s still a possibility that the pharmacy cannot find a supplier. But that’s another recurring — and vexing — issue.

The not-exactly-good news is that I go through this routine each month.

Sometimes the authorization gets processed in a timely fashion: and includes a ‘do not provide before’ date which matches the day on which my current supply runs out.

Sometimes that doesn’t happen. Last month was one of those times.

What follows is my account of last month’s epic prescription quest; a saga fraught with suspense, drama, defeat, and ultimately: triumph —

— Along with what I see as at least a partial explanation for why a seemingly-straightforward process is anything but.

Controlled Substances Act: It Seemed Like a Good Idea at the Time

Hygienic Productions's film poster: 'The Devil's Weed', also released as 'Wild Weed', 'Marijuana, the Devil's Weed', 'The Story of Lila Leeds and Her Exposé of the Marijuana Racket', 'She Shoulda Said No!' (1949)
A dire warning from 1949: released as “The Devil’s Weed”, “Wild Weed”, “She Shoulda Said No!” – – –

I do not miss “the good old days”.

Don’t get me wrong. I occasionally indulge in nostalgia. Taking a stroll down memory lane, rose-colored glasses firmly in place, can be a pleasant experience.

Brian H. Gill's collage: a rotary telephone, ca. 1955; Number One Electronic Switching System, 1976 and after; title card for The Addams Family titles, ca. 1964.; family watching television, 1958; publicity still from Batman. (ca. 1967)My nostalgic reveries take me to places like a back yard in Moorhead, Minnesota, that isn’t there any more. Or a sunlit semicircular kindergarten reading area. And that’s another topic.

I don’t know how many folks seriously believe that there was a time when wise and benevolent officials passed laws which protected citizens from sinister forces and un-American influences.

An adolescence which occurred entirely within the Sixties, exposure to ranting radio preachers and discussions of Timothy Leary’s wisdom — In a way, it’s a wonder I take any secular authorities seriously, and I’m drifting off-topic again.

Or maybe not so much. Although I have not found reliable discussions of the issue, I remember when a fair number of Americans realized that letting doctors write prescriptions for personal use was not a good idea.

That, and what I hope was a sincere concern for public health, gave us the Controlled Substances Act (CSA); which took effect in 1971.1

“PUBLIC LAW 91-513-OCT. 27, 1970“

“AN ACT

“To amend the Public Health Service Act and other laws to provide increased research into, and prevention of, drug abuse and drug dependence; to provide for treatment and rehabilitation of drug abusers and drug dependent persons; and to strengthen existing law enforcement authority in the field of drug abuse….”

“Reefer Madness”, “Captain Planet”, and Perceptions

Chester County District Attorney's photo: drug paraphernalia on a counselor's desk. (2017) via BBC News, used w/o permission.Again, I remember the Sixties.

Substance abuse was as much a problem then as it is now: my opinion.

But the federal government setting up rules and punishments that put marijuana in the same category as heroin, ecstasy, and LSD?

That, I think, did little to impress those of us who were not in a blind panic.

No, that’s not quite true. It did impress quite a few of us: and made exploitation flicks like “Reefer Madness” lastingly popular in some circles.

That was then, this is now.

America’s decision-makers today are about my age, give or take a decade or so. I don’t think they’re any more wise — or daft — than the bigwigs of my youth.

But they’ve been living in the same America that I’ve experienced: so a new set of concerns, assumptions and preferences are in play. That, I figure, is why recreational use of cannabis became legal in Minnesota. Starting August 1, 2023.

If you’re bracing yourself for a rant: relax. I think House File 100 is neither a sure sign of the coming apocalypse, nor a great step toward a groovier future. I do think the new rule will keep lawyers and civic leaders busy for the next year or so.

'Reefer Madness' (1936, released 1938-1939) theatrical release poster. (1972)So, how could legislation as comprehensive and potent as the CSA progress from the desk of congressman Harley Orrin Staggers to President Nixon’s signature in just one year and one month?

I’ve got an idea about that.

American lawmakers of the late 1960s may not have been consciously following the wisdom expressed in “Reefer Madness” (1936).

On the other hand, they were American lawmakers. They had grown up in a culture which had produced “Assassin of Youth”, “Reefer Madness”, and “The Devil’s Weed”. I suspect that their attitudes and assumptions were shaped by their socio-cultural environment.

I also see echoes of “Captain Planet and the Planeteers” in today’s climate change laws.2 And that’s yet another topic.

Scheduling Scary Substances

Joanna R. Lampe's chart for the Congressional Research Service: Controlled Substances Act Schedules I through V, listing abuse potential, official medical use if any, safety and dependency, with examples. (2021) via Wikipedia, used w/o permission.The Controlled Substances Act (CSA) sorts drugs into five “Schedules”: I, II, III, IV and V; with the most scary in Schedule I, and the least in Schedule V.

Caffeine, alcohol and nicotine aren’t “scheduled” substances, since we already had federal rules and regulations for them.

Anyway, here are quick definitions for the first two scary-stuff CSA categories:

  • Schedule I
    • Has a high potential for abuse
    • Has no currently accepted medical use for treatment in the United States
    • There are no accepted safe-use standards for its use under medical supervision
  • Schedule II
    • Has a high potential for abuse
    • Has a currently accepted medical use in treatment in the United States, or a currently accepted medical use with severe restrictions
    • Abuse may lead to severe psychological or physical dependence

Again, I remember the Sixties. I accept that folks had reasons for being scared of what we now call “controlled substances”. I’m just glad that coffee isn’t on the lists. Even though chugalugging enough might lead to psychosis. I am not making that up.3

August, 2023: Another Chapter in Brian’s Saga

Vincent van Gogh's Sorrowing Old Man' or 'At Eternity's Gate.' (1890)I talked about why I started taking methylphenidate last month, so I’ll recap that and move along.

About 16 years ago, my wife said I should consider seeing a psychiatrist. I thought she was right, so I did: and now have a list of diagnosed disorders including but not limited to:

  • ADHD: Attention deficit hyperactivity disorder, inattentive type
  • ASD: Autism spectrum disorder
  • Cluster A personality disorder
  • GAD: Generalized anxiety disorder
  • PDD: Persistent depressive disorder
  • PTSD: Post traumatic stress disorder

They can’t be “cured”, but I’ve got options for dealing with some.

Symptoms of ADHD, for example — I’ve (probably) got the inattentive type — can be legally treated with methylphenidate: a Schedule II controlled substance.

And that’s why I’ve been using a Schedule II controlled substance for 16 years.4

These days, life isn’t nearly as difficult as it once was.

That’s very good news.

Red Tape and Me

Jenn Finch's photo: scenes from the City of Dunwoody, Georgia, AAPI Cultural Heritage Celebration, (May 1, 2022) via City of Dunwoody website, used w/o permission.I don’t particularly enjoy experiencing a federally-mandated red tape ribbon dance each month.

But I do enjoy focusing more on what I’m doing and less on supervising my brain.

So each month I submit my request for an authorization, and hope that this time the process works right the first time around.

Times being what they are, clarifications may be in order. I’m okay with ribbons, dances, ribbon dances, the color red and the City of Dunwoody, Georgia. The latter is where Jenn Finch took that ribbon dance photo for Dunwoody’s AAPI Cultural Heritage Celebration.

Dealing with “red tape”, literally and figuratively, goes back at least to the Holy Roman Emperor Charles V in the 16th century; which, apparently, is where the idiom “red tape” came from.5 I realize that red tape won’t be going away any time soon.

A Glitchy AI and the Value of Typing Exercises

Brian H. Gill's 'Narcissus-X Desk'. (2017) laptop, imaginary online chat robot, and Nullurpa can ('The Unsoda')Notes I took during last month’s quest for a needed prescription weren’t nearly as complete as I thought they’d be.

Which is no surprise, considering what I’d been going through.

One of the complications, a minor one, was that the regional healthcare provider had upgraded its patient interface.

Now, instead of listening to a recorded list of numbered options and pressing the appropriate keypad button, I listened to a pretty good imitation of a human voice, which asked me why I was calling.

In my case, at least, I was also asked for my name and date of birth. Part way through giving my date of birth — I tried several common variations — the pretty good imitation asked me for my name and date of birth. Again.

I lost track of how many times that cycle repeated before I tried something else.

Instead of giving my name and some variation of the month-day-year format, I started reciting various typing exercises and sayings.

Now I wish I’d written down exactly what I said. Maybe it’ll work again.

Anyway, after maybe a minute of “The quick black dog jumped over the lazy brown fox, now is the time for all good men to come to the aid of the cause, he who hesitates is lost but look before you leap, caveat emptor e pluribus unum – – – “, the pretty good imitation gave up and turned me over to a human.

That particular exercise in frustration did have one positive outcome. I learned that at least two living humans are employed by the regional healthcare provider. Not only that, but both acted as though I was also a living human. That was nice.

Living in a Less-Than-Ideal World

Brian H. Gill. (March 17, 2021)Part of last month’s problem, I very strongly suspect, was that the pharmacy had only given me a 25-day supply for the previous month.

Folks at the pharmacy knew it, I knew it, and that was all they had on hand.

They’re supposed to provide a 30-day supply, but when they’ve only got enough for 25 days — they’ve only got enough for 25 days.

At any rate, when I realized that getting the authorization last month was going to be another insufficiently satisfactory experience, I began taking half the prescribed daily dose.

That is not what I am supposed to do. Ideally, I would trust the regional healthcare provider’s system, and the rules which we both must follow. And, again ideally, my trust would be rewarded by timely delivery of a needed medication.

I keep saying this. We do not live in an ideal world.

I have experienced withdrawal several times. It is unpleasant.

I have also learned that when seemingly-unavoidable SNAFUs happen, easing off methylphenidate both gives the system time to do whatever it does; and buys me time before withdrawal symptoms hit.

Last month, again, I went on half-doses as soon as I realized that there would be trouble. Again.

On August 11, I started taking ¼ of the daily dose. That would have kept me going until August 14. Happily, that’s the same day my pharmacy found another pharmacy with a five-day supply: which, by what felt like a miracle, was authorized.

A Frustratingly Inappropriate “25”, Idle Speculation: and Dancing Robots!

Somewhere in last month’s epic quest, an official authorization arrived at my pharmacy.

Under its terms, they could legally sell me a month’s supply of my medication.

On or after August 25, 2023.

That authorization arrived, if memory serves, before August 11. That’s the day when I started taking ¼ of the daily dose.

I was, in a way, grateful. The authorization might have granted permission for the sale on or after August 25, 2525.

My guess is that folks at the regional health care provider were having their own problems with the new-and-improved system, and it’s intelligent-but-not-very AI.

I’m also guessing that the “25” in August 25 had its origins in my pharmacy’s request for authorization.

In that request, they explained that they had only had a 25-day supply on hand, and that this was for this reason for their request that the August authorization grant permission for the aforementioned sale a mere 25 days after the previous month’s authorized sale.

With a “25” in the request, I can see how a “25” might leak into the resultant authorization.

Particularly when folks were struggling with a system upgrade that someone far upstream from day-to-day tasks had imagined would be nifty-keen.

Honestly, does anyone who actually works with computers and robots imagine that the iron idiots could rebel against their human masters? Successfully, that is?

Which reminds me. It’s been about five and a half years since I quoted XKCD’s Randall Munroe, regarding the perils of a robot uprising. (January 28, 2018)

“…Here are a few snapshots of what an actual robot apocalypse might look like:
“In labs everywhere, experimental robots would leap up from lab benches in a murderous rage, locate the door, and—with a tremendous crash—plow into it and fall over.
“Those robots lucky enough to have limbs that can operate a doorknob, or to have the door left open for them, would have to contend with deceptively tricky rubber thresholds before they could get into the hallway.
“Hours later, most of them would be found in nearby bathrooms, trying desperately to exterminate what they have identified as a human overlord but is actually a paper towel dispenser….”
(“Robot Apocalypse,” What If? XKCD.com) [emphasis mine]

On the other hand, robots have now mastered not only dance, but lip sync!

And that’s yet again another topic.

Miscellanea: “Mental Restlessness”, Methylphenidate, and More

Pmillerrhodes' radar chart, showing data from 'Development of a rational scale to assess the harm of drugs of potential misuse'; Nutt, David, Leslie A King, William Saulsbury, Colin Blakemore; The Lancet. (2007) (369:1047-1053. PMID:17382831). Via Wikipedia, used w/o permission.
Chart showing potential drug issues, from a 2007 study.

An image from Brian H. Gill's brain scans in 2018.Turns out that methylphenidate goes back to 1944, but it wasn’t called a stimulant until 1955.

That’s when the U.S. government gave the okay for its medical use.

In the 1960s, doctors started prescribing it for kids diagnosed with Hyperkinetic Reaction of Childhood (HRC).

It’s been a CSA Schedule II controlled substance since 1971, with a similar status under the Convention on Psychotropic Substances. And that’s still another topic.

HRC is what we call ADHD: Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder.

As a label, ADHD is new; but descriptions of something like it go back at least to Alexander Crichton’s discussion of “mental restlessness” in 1798.

Depending on who’s talking, something like 0.8% to 7% of kids have ADHD, with a third to a half of them still having the condition as adults.6

Social Interfacing and Living in Uncanny Valley

National Institutes of Health's illustration: regions of the brain affected by PTSD and stress. (ca. 2018)My memory tells me that diagnosing kids with ADHD was all the rage a few decades back, sort of like everything caused cancer during my college years.

At any rate, those fads passed; and now there’s official recognition that adults can have ADHD too.

ADHD in both children and adults is almost always called a disorder.

My son made a good case for the consensus opinion’s validity. His view is that because humans are social creatures, a condition which hinders social interfacing is a disorder.

I think he’s right. However, although I see ADHD and similar conditions as literally abnormal — “ab” “away from” + “norm” “rule” — I don’t necessarily feel that my neurological quirks are a disorder.

But, again, I think my son is right: and figure that my feelings come partly from having spent the bulk of my life as someone with undiagnosed psychiatric disorders.

Which reminds me: it’s time to wrap this up, and I’ve been thinking about posting videos of me talking in A Catholic Citizen in America, which isn’t as much of a non sequitur as it may seem.

My son, and oldest daughter, whose quirky circuits are so much like mine that a genetic component — that’s even more topics, and they did say it was okay for me to mention our shared experiences.

The point I was groping for was that my affect display — the way I talk, my facial expressions and body language7 — is off the norm.

But not as much as it might be. I’ve had seven decades of practice, mimicking typical human behavior. Even so, I’ve gotten the impression that sometimes I come across as someone whose home address is 1313 Eldritch Lane, Uncanny Valley.

This is where I was going to discuss why being healthy is okay, along with other ways that my faith affects how I live, and how my coffee drinking habits have changed.

But it’s late Friday, so that’ll wait for another time.

Now it’s time for the usual link lists:

1 A short Sixties sampler:

2 American angst, then and now:

3 Coffee and Schedules:

4 ADHD. With me, it’s personal:

5 Red tape and ribbon dances:

6 Drugs and a disorder:

7 Loose ends:

Posted in Discursive Detours, Journal | Tagged , , , , , | 4 Comments

Labor Day Weekend: Staying Home

Posted on September 4, 2023 by Brian H. Gill
Frank Leslie's Illustrated Newspaper's illustration; September 16, 1882: first American Labor parade, held in New York City on September 5, 1882.
The first American Labor parade, New York City: September 5, 1882. (Frank Leslie’s Illustrated Newspaper)

These days, the first Monday in September is Labor Day.

Officially, it’s when we “honor the energy and innovation of working Americans”: and, maybe, unions.

“A Proclamation on Labor Day, 2023“
(September 1, 2023)

“I have often said that the middle class built this country and that unions built the middle class. On Labor Day, we honor that essential truth and the dedication and dignity of American workers, who power our Nation’s prosperity….”

“… I … hereby proclaim September 4, 2023, as Labor Day. I call upon all public officials and people of the United States to observe this day with appropriate programs, ceremonies, and activities that honor the energy and innovation of working Americans….”
(Joseph R. Biden Jr., Briefing Room, Presidential Actions, White House)

Unofficially, it’s the last day of summer: when many Americans take vacations and/or pull out of their lake places.

I expect to see a familiar boat or two parked in back yards next week.

This household doesn’t own a boat, or a lake place, or spend a week at one of Minnesota’s vacation spots. We’ve only had so many resources, and that sort of thing wasn’t a high priority: although I do have good memories of when my parents rented a cabin on a lake.

Anyway, my staying home during Labor Day weekend was business-as-usual. We just don’t, for one reason and another, travel.

I did, however, spend a few minutes on the front stoop Sunday afternoon, reading part of a chapter in “Alice Through the Looking Glass”. Early Sunday afternoon.

There’s a Heat Advisory out for this area.

And, although I don’t mind a little summer warmth, there are limits. Sunday afternoon was one of those times when I felt as if I could work up a sweat, just blinking my eyes.

Labor Day: A (very) Little History

From Harper's Weekly, via Chicago History Museum and Wikimedia Commons, used w/o permission: Haymarket riot (May 15, 1886)Heat, last week’s Hurricane Idalia and this weekend’s Typhoon Haikui (Hanna?) are causing trouble.

But I haven’t run across anyone fuming about Labor Day not being on or near the first of May: or being an anarchist plot to subvert American values. I’ve said this before: I do not miss the “good old days”.

I thought of writing about labor movements, the eight-hour day, Second International, and other once-dire threats. But I’m probably still getting over last month’s monumental prescription SNAFU — and it’s been an overly-warm weekend.

So I’ll express a few opinions, add the usual links, and leave it at that.

This is not

  • The Gilded Age
  • Progressive Era
  • Roaring Twenties
  • McCarthy’s heyday
  • Sixties

Trade unions are no longer threats to The Establishment. They have, arguably, long since become part of the dominant social group. The folks who run unions have, at any rate.

Yes, I’ve heard of the current Writer’s Guild Strike. I don’t doubt that there are inequities, and think that folks who create content should be both recognized and compensated.

Let’s see. I’m missing something. Hurricanes. Right.

The 1935 Labor Day Hurricane’s Wikipedia page “has multiple issues”, mostly having to do with style, quotations and external links.

Like Hurricane Idalia, the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane hit Florida.1

My guess is that this is because hurricanes happen, the part of the world that Florida is in gets hurricanes: and that Idalia will, inevitably, become part of the current presidential election fracas’s fewmet-flinging.

Which I am not enjoying, and that’s another topic.

Anyway, I said there would be links. The common theme is a more-or-less-brief discussion of the Haymarket affair/riot/incident:

1 History, hurricanes and all that:

Posted in Discursive Detours, Journal | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Yellowstone: Geysers, Quakes and, Eventually, a Supereruption

Posted on September 2, 2023 by Brian H. Gill
Louis Prang's L. Prang and Co. lithograph (ca. 1875); from Thomas Moran's 'The Great Blue Spring of the Lower Geyser basin, Yellowstone National Park' (1874).
Litho. from Thomas Moran’s “The Great Blue Spring of the Lower Geyser basin, Yellowstone National Park”. (1874)

I started writing about Yellowstone, hazards, and science a few weeks ago.

Then life happened — there’s a link near the end of this post — something more timely came up, and now I’m back with a look at the area’s past, present and future.

Travelers’ Tales

Henry Wellge's map of Yellowstone National Park for the Northern Pacific Railway Company. (1904) David Rumsey Map Collection via Wikipedia, used w/o permission
Henry Wellge’s map of Yellowstone National Park for the Northern Pacific Railway Company. (1904)

The Yellowstone Plateau is one of North America’s beauty spots. A little over 3,400 square miles of it has been a National Park since 1872 and a World Heritage Site since 1978.

Folks have lived in the area for at least 11,000 years.

Folks who look a bit like me stumbled upon it about two centuries back. One of them, Jim Bridger, gave detailed reports of what he’d seen:

“…Bridger once described a petrified forest in Yellowstone that was home to ‘petrified birds that sang petrified songs’….

“…According to Bridger, there existed a lake of cool, trout-filled waters capped by a layer of hot water introduced from a nearby hot spring. When he needed a quick meal, Bridger would catch a trout and reel it in slowly, allowing time for it to cook as it passed through the overlying hot water….”
“Jim Bridger: Yellowstone’s Spinner of Tall Tales“, Yellowstone Volcano Observatory, U.S. Geological Survey (June 15, 2020)

Small wonder serious Euro-Americans didn’t follow up on Mr. Bridger’s reports.

At least one local’s description, passed along to the Lewis and Clark expedition, likely didn’t encourage a side-trip to find the Yellowstone River’s source.

“…There is only one hint of volcanic phenomena which Clark seems to have obtained from any source other than the presumed conversation with Colter, mentioned below. This was an Indian tale, received after Clark’s return, but before Colter’s return, to the effect that at the head of Tongue River, a branch of the Yellowstone, ‘there is frequently heard a loud noise like Thunder, which makes the earth Tremble, they state that they seldom go there because their children Cannot sleep—and Conceive it possessed of spirits, who were averse that men Should be near them.’…”
(“Colter’s Hell and Jackson’s Hole: The Fur Trappers’ Exploration of the Yellowstone and Grand Teton Park Region“, II. The Mystery of “La Roche Jaune” or Yellow Rock River, Merrill J. Mattes (1962, reprint 1970) via Gutenberg.org)[emphasis mine]

Can’t say I blame whoever told a foreigner about trembling earth, loud noises and reclusive spirits.

If I realized that outsiders were checking out my area, I might have encouraged them to stay away from a culturally-important place with natural wonders and good hunting.

Being strictly truthful, while giving an impression that the spot was geologically unstable and haunted to boot might seem like a good idea.1

Yellowstone: Hydrothermal and Other Hazards

National Park Service photo: geysers, from Thing to Do - Photography In Yellowstone. Used w/o permission.
Geysers in Yellowstone National Park.

About half of Earth’s active geysers are in Yellowstone National Park. They range from giants like Old Faithful and Steamboat Geyser, the world’s tallest (at the moment), to little one- and two-foot spurters.

ЮК's animated GIF, illustrating how a geyser works. (2009) via Wikimedia Commons, used w/o permission.A geyser is a manic-depressive hot spring.

Bipolar disorder is the current moniker for folks whose mood swings go from gloom to frenzy, and that’s another topic.

Anyway, hot springs happen when ground water goes through magma-heated rock on its way to an above-ground outlet.

We get geysers when heated ground water can’t flow out right away. Mainly because it cools off on its way to the surface.

Then we’ve got a (comparatively) cool plug of water keeping increasingly superheated water underground.

Sooner or later, there’s enough pressure to push the superheated water out. The pressure release lets the superheated water flash into steam.

That’s when a fountain of steam, water droplets, minerals, and anything else that has accumulated, shoots up in a, well, a geyser. The underground reservoir re-fills and the cycle starts again.

Some geysers, like Old Faithful and Grand Geyser, are predictable; but not very.

Old Faithful, for example, spouted every 66 and a half minutes in 1939. That’s 66 and a half minutes on average. Actual intervals were anywhere between 60 and 110 minutes.

These days, Old Faithful’s eruptions come every 92 minutes. Again, on average; with intervals ranging from 35 to 120 minutes.

There’s math describing relationships between how long an eruption lasts and how long it’ll be before the next one.2 But that’s not what I’m talking about this week.

Explosions and Boardwalks

USGS map, adapted from Morgan et al., 2022: 'Color-shaded bathymetric map of Yellowstone Lake showing locations of sediment cores and major tectonic features (faults, fractures, lineaments, caldera margins) and hydrothermal areas (vents, domes, hydrother­mal explosion craters).' Used w/o permission.
Yellowstone Lake, showing depth and tectonic features, including Elliott’s Crater.

Every now and then, the outlet for a hot spring or a geyser gets plugged or throttled down, or underground pressures rises, or both. Like so much else in this world, it’s complicated.

Sometimes underground pressure gets too high, and whatever’s holding it back breaks.

That happened to Porkchop Geyser.

Up until 1984, it was a porkchop-shaped heated pool about 10 feet across that occasionally erupted — every few years or so. The eruptions weren’t spectacular, a few yards high, emptying the pool, which refilled.

In march of 1985, it started spouting continuously. Sometimes the escaping steam and water roared so loud, folks could hear it more than a mile away.

Four years later, at 2:40 p.m. local time, September 5, 1989, eight visitors were watching Porkchop Geyser from a boardwalk. Porkchop’s plume shot up 65 to 100 feet. Then the geyser exploded.

Rocks more than a yard across were uprooted. Smaller debris landed up to 200 feet from the vent. Porkchop’s pool became a crater about 30 feet across.

None of the eight visitors were hurt. Startled, I’d imagine, but not hurt. That’s why boardwalks for visitors are so far from geysers.

Small hydrothermal explosions like Porkchop’s happen a few times per century.

Large hydrothermal explosions in Yellowstone happen on average every 700 years, leaving craters upwards of 100 meters, 328 feet, across.

Then there’s Elliott’s Crater, under Yellowstone Lake: named after Henry Wood Elliott, artist, who was with the Hayden Geological Survey of 1871.

About 8,000 years back, at least three “pulses” left a crater upwards of 900 yards across. Since then, much smaller explosions left craters inside Elliott’s Crater; and the area’s still hydrothermally active.3

Earthquake Lake and a 1959 Landslide

USGS photo: aerial view of Quake Lake, Montana, formed when a landslide flooded Hebgen Dam. via Wikipedia, used w/o permission.
Quake Lake, Montana, formed after the 1959 earthquake.
Google Maps satellite view: Earthquake Lake and Hebgen Dam, Montana.
Quake Lake, Montana, formed after the 1959 earthquake.

Hydrothermal features like geysers and hot springs, and geothermal activity in general, happen when hot material from deep inside Earth has been pushed near the surface.

Moving masses of magma make for earthquakes. Or earthquakes make for moving masses of magma. Either way, where we’ve got geysers and hot springs, we’ve got tourist attractions: and earthquakes.

And earthquakes plus tourists make for headlines. Which brings me to the 1959 Hebgen Lake earthquake.

The it-could-be-worse news is that only about two dozen folks died when part of a mountain slid onto Rock Creek campground and the Madison River, downstream of the Hebgen Dam. I’ve seen fatality estimates ranging from 19 to 28: possibly because some folks who were missing turned out to be dead.

Repairing Hebgen Dam took a few weeks. That was a concern. But it wasn’t the only one.

The landslide had also blocked the Madison River. Which is why the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers scrambled to dig a stable outlet for the rapidly-filling Earthquake/Quake Lake.

Time passed.

When my parents and I visited the Yellowstone area, we saw where the landslide had left a gap in the Madison River valley’s side. The U.S. Forest Service’s Earthquake Lake Visitor Center opened in 1967. I’m pretty sure that’s after our trip.

It’s funny. For someone with a degree in history, my memory for dates is shaky at best. Except for things like “in fourteen hundred and ninety-two, Columbus sailed the ocean blue”, and that’s yet another topic.

The 1959 landslide wasn’t, by far, the biggest in that area.

About 47,500,000 million years back, give or take, a whacking great chunk of limestone and dolomite went sliding across what we call the Bighorn Basin.4 And that’s yet again another topic.

Looking Ahead

USGS graphic: illustrating frequency of representing frequency of tectonic and geothermal events in Yellowstone area.
Small hydrothermal explosions to caldera-forming eruptions: figuring the odds. (USGS)

If more caldera-forming eruptions started in Yellowstone, that would push even election-years headlines and op-eds off the front page. Well, off the front page’s banner at any rate.

The last I checked, the U.S. Geological Survey says there’s “no evidence that another such cataclysmic eruption will occur at Yellowstone in the foreseeable future.”

I think they’re right. I also think they mean “foreseeable future” as in “the next few decades or maybe centuries”.

Films like “2012” notwithstanding, geologists have been learning quite a bit about how volcanoes, supervolcanoes and tectonics in general work. They’re also keeping close tabs on what’s happening on and under Yellowstone.

I don’t doubt that we have a very great deal left to learn. But I’m pretty sure that “they” don’t really know a supervolcano is about to cancel the next Super Bowl, and are selling tickets to an unsuspecting public.

Although that might make a good story. And I’m drifting off-topic again.

Now, about the Yellowstone Caldera. The last big eruption there happened about 631,000 years back. Before that there were two: about 1,300,000 years and 2,080,000 years back.

There may be another one coming, but there’s also a good chance that the Yellowstone hotspot is running out of steam. Magma, actual.

Taking the three known supereruptions and doing some simple math could tell me that we’re overdue for something that’ll put a crimp in presidential politics. But as the USGS points out, supervolcanoes don’t run on a timetable.5

That hasn’t stopped filmmakers from making screen spectacles.

Supereruptions: and a Film Clip

If, and it’s a big if, another supereruption is imminent — it wouldn’t be good for real estate prices in the American West, Midwest or South. At all.

But I strongly suspect that quite a few folks here would survive.

And, barring daft decisions, we might even keep our political units in operation. And that is still another topic or two.

My suspicions aren’t blind optimism. We’ve been through this before.

New Zealand’s Taupō Volcano blew about 25,500 to 25,700 years back. As far as I could tell after a quick check, it’s the most recent supereruption on Earth.

Some 69,000 to 77,000 years ago, a supereruption left Sumatra with Lake Toba. It had a measurable effect on Earth’s climate. Direct and indirect effects of the eruption probably killed a great many folks living in that part of the world. But many of us survived.6

I was going to talk about Yellowstone events, past, present and future; the Toba catastrophe theory; and why I take ‘science news’ with a pallet or two of salt.

But now it’s Friday afternoon. It’s been one of those weeks, and I got distracted.

So what’s (probably) ahead for the Yellowstone hotspot, and a little of my speculation, will wait until another time.

Bottom line?

Movies are movies, science is science.

Entertainment can be fine. But decisions? They’re better if there’s science in the mix. Or at least common sense.

I haven’t talked about geology nearly as much as I though I had:

1 Science, history and tall tales:

2 Hot water, mostly:

3 History and geology — or — jumping into a hot spring may be hazardous to your health:

4 Somewhat recent earthquakes:

5 Science, mostly:

6 Geography and supereruptions:

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