Science, Religion, and Saying Goodbye to the 19th Century

Friedrich Graetz's political cartoon (March 5, 1883): 'An appalling attempt to muzzle the watch-dog of science', from the cover of Puck magazine. (March 14, 1883) and see https://loc.getarchive.net/media/an-appalling-attempt-to-muzzle-the-watch-dog-of-science-f-graetz
“An appalling attempt to muzzle the watch-dog of science” on the cover of Puck. (March 5, 1883)

I think the notion that someone can either be a Christian or appreciate the cosmic scale and wonders of God’s creation is fading.

Sincerely believing in a conflict where champions of science and reason opposed the dark forces of religion didn’t, arguably, start in the 19th century.

But that’s when the idea got traction. In England and America, at any rate.

Even so, fallout from the 19th century could be worse. I could be living in a culture where religiously earnest folks insisted that diamagnetism is diabolical.

This week I’ll be talking about faith, reason, cultural baggage, and why using my brain is a good idea.


“The Watch-Dog of Science” and Cultural Baggage

Cover of Punch (March 14, 1883), with cartoon by Friedrich Graetz: 'An appalling attempt to muzzle the watch-dog of science'. (Caption dated March 5, 1883)That cartoon’s big watch-dog is Herbert “survival of the fittest” Spencer, English philosopher, biologist, anthropologist, and a big fan of Darwin.

The caption is a quote from “Tel. London”, which may or may not be the Daily Telegraph & Courier (London).

An appalling attempt to muzzle the watch-dog of science
Puck magazine (March 14, 1883)

“‘The Society for the Suppression of Blasphemous Literature proposes to get up cases against Professors Huxley and Tyndall, Herbert Spencer, and others who, by their writings, have sown widespread unbelief, and in some cases rank atheism.’ — Tel. London, March 5, 1883″
(via Public Domain Media, Library of Congress) [emphasis mine]

Agnosticism, Diamagnetism — and Levitating Frogs

The 'Flammarion Woodcut, from his 'L'Atmosphère: Météorologie Populaire.' (1888)Huxley, Tyndall, and Spencer, don’t have all that much name recognition these days, so here’s a quick introduction:

  • Thomas Huxley: English biologist, anthropologist; nicknamed “Darwin’s Bulldog”; coined “agnosticism”
  • Herbert Spencer: English philosopher, anthropologist, biologist, psychologist, sociologist; coined “survival of the fittest”; agnostic
  • John Tyndall: Irish physicist; often seen as agnostic

Agnosticism, very briefly, is the idea that we can’t know whether or not God exists. I can see how that might make sense in the late 19th century. Particularly in England.

All three — Huxley, Spencer, and Tyndall — had a reputation for being agnostic. Huxley and Spencer were pretty clear about being agnostic.

My guess is that John Tyndall got pegged as an agnostic because he was a physicist; and, despite being Irish, known for being pretty smart.

NASA, ESA, CSA, STScI, Danny Milisavljevic (Purdue University), Ilse De Looze (UGent), Tea Temim (Princeton University)'s images: supernova remnant Cassiopeia A (Cas A) as captured by NASA's James Webb Space Telescope's (left) NIRCam (Near-Infrared Camera) and (right) MIRI (Mid-Infrared Instrument). (December 10, 2023)Tyndall probably realized that, smart as we humans are, God-level understanding is beyond us.

“…If you ask him [the materialist] whence is this ‘Matter’ of which we have been discoursing–who or what divided it into molecules, who or what impressed upon them this necessity of running into organic forms–he has no answer. Science is mute in reply to these questions. But if the materialist is confounded and science rendered dumb, who else is prepared with a solution? To whom has this arm of the Lord been revealed? Let us lower our heads, and acknowledge our ignorance, priest and philosopher, one and all….

“…I compare the mind of man to a musical instrument with a certain range of notes, beyond which in both directions exists infinite silence. The phenomena of matter and force come within our intellectual range; but behind, and above, and around us the real mystery of the universe lies unsolved, and, as far as we are concerned, is incapable of solution….”
(“Fragments of Science: A Series of Detached Essays, Addresses, and Reviews“, V. 1-2, John Tyndall (1879) via Gutenberg.org)

Photo of Irish physicist John Tyndall, taken mid-career; from the Tucker Collection, New York Public Library Archives, via Wikipedia, used w/o permission.John Tyndall’s reputation as an agnostic may be due to his being one of the few high-profile British physicists of his day who weren’t insisting that science and religion were, if not on the same page, at least in same book.

I’m not sure what accounts for Tyndall’s lack of infamy these days.

Or why diamagnetism hasn’t been denounced something fierce. Not the way Darwin’s ideas about evolution were.

At any rate, Tyndall’s early research involved diamagnetism.

Diamagnetism is a bit of natural weirdness that’s been studied since 1778, when someone noticed that magnets repel bismuth.

Since Tyndall’s day, we’ve learned that it’s a quantum mechanical effect. And that, given enough power, we can use it to levitate frogs.1

It’s probably just as well that John Tyndale’s interest in diamagnetism remained mostly a nerdy science topic.

Checking Our Cultural Baggage

'Man is but a Worm' cartoon, caricaturing Darwin's theory, from the Punch almanac for 1882. (1881)I talked about Victorian politics, the Church of England, and England’s educational establishment last month.

Basically, folks who liked the status quo thought that Henry VIII’s national church should keep its tight grip on England’s education system. Folks who thought maybe they weren’t living in the best of all possible Englands — didn’t.

Vastly oversimplified? Yes.

Essentially accurate? I think so.

Among the reasons I am profoundly glad that “the good old days” are not returning? Definitely.

An example of how cultural baggage — beliefs, customs, folklore, laws, social behavior and norms; everything a person grows up with — can get in the way of common sense?

I think so.

But that doesn’t mean I see either Huxley and company or the Society for the Suppression of Blasphemous Literature (SSBL hereafter) as ‘good guys’ or ‘bad guys’.

I suspect Huxley, Spencer, and all, sincerely felt that they were struggling for truth and freedom of thought. And that the SSBL sincerely believed they were defending the British public against blasphemy and atheism.

Being calm and collected about the SSBL, Huxley, and political satire of the 1880s is easy.

results from 'Scopes trial' query in my Google News feed. (May 22, 2024)Particularly since we’ve had our own brouhahas: including analogs of the SSBL vs. Huxley embarrassment. Repetition reduces their shock value.

It’s been nearly a century since William Jennings “Cross of Gold” Bryan — unintentionally, I think — helped establish the idea that someone could either be scientifically literate, or be a Christian.2

The 1925 Scopes trial is now part of my country’s cultural baggage. I can’t change that, but I can suggest that unconscious assumptions aren’t necessarily a good match with current realities.

Remembering the Freethought Road

Watson Heston's illustration: 'Two Ways to Go', from 'The Freethinkers' Pictorial Text-book'. (1896) via Wikipedia, used w/o permission.
From “The Freethinkers’ Pictorial Text-book”, Watson Heston. (1896)

Detail, Watson Heston's illustration: 'Two Ways to Go', from 'The Freethinkers' Pictorial Text-book'. (1896) via Wikipedia, used w/o permission.Backing up a bit: sincerity is nice, but it won’t make something real.

For example, I could sincerely believe that anything I do is right: because I’m one of the ‘good guys’.

That would make me delusional, or a flaming hypocrite. Now I’ve probably insulted someone, and that’s another topic.

Presenting religion, particularly Christianity, as the cause of hypocrisy — “the Vale of Tears” leading to ignorance, cruelty, and superstition — was arguably an easy sell in 1896, when The Truth Seeker Company published “The Freethinkers’ Pictorial Text-book”.3

Back then, an American version of Christianity was widely accepted.

I’m reasonably sure that finding someone who identified as Christian, but didn’t act the part, was easy. Maybe even unavoidable. Contrasting that unpleasant reality with the unrealized promises of Watson Heston’s Freethought Road could feel good.

About waypoints on Freethought Road, and its ultimate goal: they sound good.

I have no problem with reason, education, humanity — good grief, I am human; of course I’m okay with humanity — justice, science, virtue, love, liberty, and truth.

That was true before I became a Catholic. What’s changed is that now using my brain, acting as if I love my neighbors, and seeking truth, are obligations.

Another obligation is keeping my priorities straight. Putting anything or anyone ahead of God is a bad idea and I shouldn’t do it. (Catechism of the Catholic Church, 2112-2114)

Valuing truth, though, isn’t a problem. Or shouldn’t be.

That’s because God is the source of all truth, and I’m expected to “live in truth”. (Catechism, 2464-2503)

Protecting Their Country From People Like Me

'The Freethinkers' Pictorial Text-book', p. 149: 'The Theologian's Conception of Clerical Privileges'. Designs by Watson Heston, The Truth Seeker Company (1896) via Internet Archive, used w/o permission.
A familiar assumption, from “The Freethinkers’ Pictorial Text-book”. (1896)

Excerpt from 'Allah Had No Son' and 'The Death Cookie,' Chick Publications. (retrieved September 9, 2021)“The Freethinkers’ Pictorial Text-book” reminded me of today’s Chick tracts. Mainly because of the book’s tone, and effective use of illustrations.

“…Pictorial Text-book” had more text, fewer pictures, the usual anti-Catholic attitude, plus noting that other Christians didn’t act like Christians either. With, of course, a Freethinker’s view of those religious people.

“The Church and Slavery”, for example, on pages 270-271, discusses “The Ghost in the Methodist Church-Yard”. And that’s yet another topic. Topics.

So: how can I reasonably be a Christian, and a Catholic, in a world where Christians and Catholics aren’t all perfectly perfect people?

Let’s put it this way. I’m not a perfectly perfect person. Complaining because the Church lets people like me be Catholics doesn’t make sense. Although a similar thought did make a good joke.

“I sent the club a wire stating, ‘PLEASE ACCEPT MY RESIGNATION. I DON’T WANT TO BELONG TO ANY CLUB THAT WILL ACCEPT PEOPLE LIKE ME AS A MEMBER’.”
(Groucho Marx, Telegram to the Friar’s Club of Beverly Hills to which he belonged, as recounted in Groucho and Me (1959) via Wikiquote)

If that gag seems familiar, it should. I used it three weeks ago.4

Since I’m one of those “ignorant followers” of “privileged characters”, I could hardly blame freethinkers from wanting to protect their country from people like me.

But I do not think their fears were justified.

Partly because I know there’s more to Christianity than folks desperately trying to stop the publication of scientific research. Granted, folks like the 20th century Anti-Evolution League of America tend to get attention. I talked about them last month.5

Darwin, Divinity, and Letter From an English Priest

Photo by Lastenglishking: 'Newman's desk in the Birmingham Oratory'. (July 6, 1985)
His Eminence Saint John Henry Newman’s desk in the Birmingham Oratory.

St. John Henry Newman — the English John Newman, not the Bohemian-American St. John Neumann — was not your typical 19th century Catholic.

For one thing, he was a cardinal. And a convert to Catholicism.

Cardinals are next step down in the Church hierarchy from pope. I won’t try summarizing who does what, from laity like me up to the servant of the servants of God. Not this week. We’ve been around for two millennia and — it’s complicated.

The point of that ramble is that John Henry Newman was a Catholic priest when he wrote a letter to J. Walker of Scarborough, but wouldn’t be a cardinal for another 11 years. Here’s an excerpt from that letter:

“…If Mr Darwin in this or that point of his theory comes into collision with revealed truth, that is another matter — but I do not see that the principle of development, or what I have called construction, does. As to the Divine Design, is it not an instance of incomprehensibly and infinitely marvellous Wisdom and Design to have given certain laws to matter millions of ages ago, which have surely and precisely worked out, in the long course of those ages, those effects which He from the first proposed. Mr Darwin’s theory need not then to be atheistical, be it true or not; it may simply be suggesting a larger idea of Divine Prescience and Skill. Perhaps your friend has got a surer clue to guide him than I have, who have never studied the question, and I do not [see] that ‘the accidental evolution of organic beings’ is inconsistent with divine design — It is accidental to us, not to God….”
(John Henry Newman to J. Walker of Scarborough on Darwin’s Theory of Evolution (May 22, 1868) via Interdisciplinary Encyclopedia of Religion & Science [emphasis in original text])

Maybe St. John Henry Newman’s “accidental” in the last sentence has the word’s philosophical meaning: a property that doesn’t necessarily connect to an item’s essence.

A chair, for example, might “accidentally” be made of wood or plastic. But either way, it would would be “essentially” a chair.6

Or maybe he was playing with words and ideas, and meant that we don’t have a God’s-eye view of reality. Which is something I’m comfortable with.

I like knowing things and understanding stuff. But I’m okay with knowing that God’s God and I’m not.

That brings me to a counter-cultural idea.


Thinking is Not a Sin

'The Freethinkers' Pictorial Text-book', p. 133: 'The Bible and Geography'. Designs by Watson Heston, The Truth Seeker Company (1896) via Internet Archive, used w/o permission.
From “The Freethinkers’ Pictorial Text-book”, Watson Heston: old and new cosmologies. (1896)

Non Sequtur's Church of Danae and faith-based physics. From Wiley Miller, used w/o permission.Before talking about sin and thinking, a quick overview of how I should act.

I should love God, love my neighbor, and see everybody as my neighbor. Everybody. (Matthew 5:4344, 22:3640; Mark 12:2831; Luke 6:31, 10:2537; Catechism, 1789)

When I don’t love God and my neighbors: that’s sin. Sin gets in the way of healthy relationships. It’s an offense against reason, truth, “right conscience”, and God. (Catechism, 1849-1851)

Since I’m a Catholic, I think faith and reason get along. (Catechism, 35, 50, 154-159)

My faith is a willing and conscious decision to embrace God’s truth. All of God’s truth, including what we can see in this universe. Studying God’s work makes sense, since I think God creates everything. (Genesis 1:131, 2:425; Catechism, 31-35, 142-155, 325-349)

I also think each of us is made “in the image of God”, with body AND soul. And that because I’m human, I’m “an animal endowed with reason”. (Catechism, 355-373, 1951)

But I have free will. So using reason, thinking, is an option: not a hardwired response. It’s also an obligation, and vital when I’m deciding what I’ll do or not do. (Catechism, 1730, 1749ff)

Truth matters, both in science and in faith. (Catechism, 31, 159, and more)

God is the source of all truth. (Catechism, 2465)

Since all truth points toward God, both studying God’s creation and taking God seriously isn’t a problem. (Catechism, 27, 31-35, 41, 74, 282-289, 293-294, 341, 1723, 2294, 2500)

The question about the origins of the world and of man has been the object of many scientific studies which have splendidly enriched our knowledge of the age and dimensions of the cosmos, the development of life-forms and the appearance of man. These discoveries invite us to even greater admiration for the greatness of the Creator, prompting us to give him thanks for all his works and for the understanding and wisdom he gives to scholars and researchers. With Solomon they can say: ‘It is he who gave me unerring knowledge of what exists, to know the structure of the world and the activity of the elements. . . for wisdom, the fashioner of all things, taught me.'”
(Catechism of the Catholic Church, 283) [emphasis mine]

“…The order and harmony of the created world results from the diversity of beings and from the relationships which exist among them. Man discovers them progressively as the laws of nature. They call forth the admiration of scholars. The beauty of creation reflects the infinite beauty of the Creator and ought to inspire the respect and submission of man’s intellect and will.
(Catechism, 341) [emphasis mine]

Again: thinking is part of being human, or should be. It’s what I’m supposed to do.

I keep saying that. A lot. Mostly because the notion that science and religion can’t mix has been so deeply embedded in my culture.


Punctured Pride?

Unknown artist's 'The Lion of the Season' cartoon published in Punch issue 1036 (Th 'Alarmed flunky': 'MR. G G-G-O-O-O-RILLA!' (May 18, 1861)I don’t know why anti-evolution books often had their own section in “Christian” bookstores, while anti-physics tomes — now that I think about it, I can’t remember seeing any.

Maybe it’s because most proper English gentleman-physicists of a bygone era weren’t upsetting applecarts.

While, in sharp contrast, folks like Huxley were openly agnostic: and actually said that humans weren’t utterly separate and distinct from — shudderanimals. The very idea!!!

I suspect — strongly — that anti-evolution sentiments are at least partly rooted in punctured pride.

I’ve got my share of self-esteem above and beyond the call of reason. But I’ve looked in a mirror, and have seen apes in Como Zoo.

In any case, I don’t have a problem with thinking that we’re made “in the image of God” and from the stuff of this world. I’ve read Genesis 1:27 and 2:7, don’t think Sacred Scriptures were written by English-speaking literalists, and that’s yet again more topics.7


Perspectives

Nighttime photo of the 1939 World's Fair, New York City. (September 15, 1939.)
The “Dawn of a New Day” in “the world of tomorrow”. World’s Fair, 1939-1940 .

“Indeed, before you the whole universe is like a grain from a balance,
or a drop of morning dew come down upon the earth.
“But you have mercy on all, because you can do all things;
and you overlook sins for the sake of repentance.”
(Wisdom 11:2223)

Waldemar Kaempffert's 'Miracles You'll See in the Next Fifty Years', Popular Mechanics (February 1950) via David S. Zondy's Tales of Future Past https://davidszondy.com/futurepast/life-in-2000-ad.htmlI do, at times, miss the old panegyrics of progress, proclaiming that science, technology, and electric hair clippers would lead us into a shining utopia.

We’ll be cleaning up the mess left by mass-produced kitsch and throwaway durables for generations — but at least the era’s attitude was occasionally cheerful.

I don’t miss the triumphalist tone of articles contrasting science and high ideals with superstition, ignorance, and other (alleged) manifestations of religious beliefs.

And I emphatically don’t miss loudly-religious folks who seemed determined to demonstrate that freethinkers and their successors were right about religious people.

That sort of thing seems to be going out of fashion.8

I don’t mind a bit.

I think it’s high time we acknowledge that the 19th century is over.

Hubble/ESA/D. A. Gouliermis (MPIA) image: LH 95 stellar nursery in the Large Magellanic Cloud. (2007) via Wikipedia, used w/o permission; see https://esahubble.org/products/calendars/cal200705/)Finally, a few of my favorite quotes about truth, science, not knowing everything — and studying God’s universe.

“…It’s something too many of us forget, that reality has layers. Occasionally people ask me how I can be Catholic and a science journalist. The answer is simple: Truth does not contradict truth. Both science and religion are pursuit of truth. They’re after different aspects of truth, different layers of reality, but they’re still both fundamentally about truth.…”
(Camille M. Carlisle, Sky and Telescope (June 2017)) [emphasis mine]

“…Religion and natural science are fighting a joint battle in an incessant, never relaxing crusade against scepticism and against dogmatism, against disbelief and against superstition, and the rallying cry in this crusade has always been, and always will be: ‘On to God!’
(Religion and Natural Science, a lecture delivered in May, 1937, originally titled Religion und Naturwissenschaft. Complete translation into English: “Scientific Autobiography and Other Papers“, Max Planck (1968); via archive.org) [emphasis mine]

“…God, the Creator and Ruler of all things, is also the Author of the Scriptures — and that therefore nothing can be proved either by physical science or archaeology which can really contradict the Scriptures. … Even if the difficulty is after all not cleared up and the discrepancy seems to remain, the contest must not be abandoned; truth cannot contradict truth.…”
(“Providentissimus Deus“, Pope Leo XIII (November 18, 1893)) [emphasis mine]

“Question the beauty of the earth, question the beauty of the sea, question the beauty of the air…. They all answer you, ‘Here we are, look; we’re beautiful.’…
“…So in this way they arrived at a knowledge of the god who made things, through the things which he made”.
(Sermon 241, St. Augustine of Hippo (ca. 411))

More of my take on faith, reason, and using our brains:


1 Science, and a cultural context:

Grant Hamilton's cartoon comment on William Jennings Bryan's 1896 'Cross of Gold' speech at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago.2 Cultural baggage —

3 Viewpoints:

4 Art, life, and a few good ideas:

5 Some Christians are alternatively-reasonable —

6 Three Catholics, and a little background:

7 Ideas, old and new:

8 Faith, reason, science, religion, and a bit of the 20th century American experience:

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Two Pilots, Flight Technician, Iranian President Dead: Briefly

A helicopter carrying two pilots, a flight technician, and at least five other folks crashed yesterday. They’re all dead. One of them was Iran’s president: which made the aviation accident international news.

I am not happy that at least eight people died in that helicopter. I am particularly troubled, because at least one of those deaths may make life difficult for a great many other folks.

All of which may take a little explaining.

I think human life matters. All human life. Each human life: no matter how young or old, healthy or sick we are. (Catechism of the Catholic Church, 2258, 2261, 2268-2283)

The life of everyone in that helicopter mattered because each of them is human. What each one did, and may have believed, doesn’t change that. (Catechism, 360, 1700-1706, 1932-1933, 1935)

Life matters. So does responsibility and justice.

Like everyone else, I can try helping or hurting others. And I’m responsible for my actions. (Catechism, 1701-1709, 1730-1738, 2258)

I’ve talked about death, life, and making sense, before:

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A Super-Earth With an Air About It: 55 Cancri e, Janssen

NASA, ESA, CSA, Ralf Crawford (STScI) image: an artist's concept; the exoplanet 55 Cancri e and its sun, based on observations from NASA's James Webb Space Telescope and other observatories. (2024?)
Ralf Crawford’s impression of the exoplanet 55 Cancri e and its sun.

Screenshot from NASA's Eyes on Exoplanets: 55 Cancri e, and known planets in the Copernicus system. (2019?) (screenshot taken May 12, 2024)This month’s analysis of a piping hot super-Earth’s atmosphere is a big deal.

But it’s not the “first” detection of a terrestrial exoplanet’s atmosphere, not by about eight years.1

I’ll be talking about how scientists sift through data, 55 Cancri e’s atmosphere, its planetary system, why 55 Cancri e — the exoplanet was officially named Janssen in 2015 — and why calling Janssen a “diamond planet” may be appropriate.


Scientists and 55 Cancri e: How They Know What They Know

NASA, ESA, CSA, Joseph Olmsted (STScI) Science: Aaron Bello-Arufe (JPL)'s illustration: 'A light curve of 7.5- to 11.8-micron light captured by NASA's James Webb Space Telescope's MIRI (Mid-Infrared Instrument) in March 2023 shows the decrease in brightness of the 55 Cancri system as the rocky planet 55 Cancri e moves behind the star, a phenomenon known as a secondary eclipse. ... indicates that heat is being distributed from the dayside to the nightside of the planet, possibly by a volatile-rich atmosphere.' (2024)
Illustration: 55 Cancri e’s secondary eclipse light curve, 7.5- to 11.8-microns. (March 2023, published 2024) NASA/ESA/CSA/STScI/JPL.

The Copernicus (55 Cancri A) planetary system is just like the Solar System. Except for how it’s different.

NASA’s Webb Hints at Possible Atmosphere Surrounding Rocky Exoplanet
NASA Webb Mission Team, Goddard Space Flight Center, NASA (May 8, 2024)

“Researchers using NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope may have detected atmospheric gases surrounding 55 Cancri e, a hot rocky exoplanet 41 light-years from Earth. This is the best evidence to date for the existence of any rocky planet atmosphere outside our solar system.

“Renyu Hu from NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) in Pasadena, California, is lead author on a paper published today in Nature. ‘Webb is pushing the frontiers of exoplanet characterization to rocky planets,’ Hu said. ‘It is truly enabling a new type of science.’…”

I’m not sure exactly what “new type of science” Dr. Hu had in mind. This Dr. Hu is the one with a PhD in planetary science from MIT, by the way; not the nuclear physicist who retired in 1994.

Screenshot and link to 'A secondary atmosphere on the rocky exoplanet 55 Cancri e';  Renyu Hu, Aaron Bello-Arufe, Michael Zhang, Kimberly Paragas, Mantas Zilinskas, Christiaan van Buchem, Michael Bess, Jayshil Patel, Yuichi Ito, Mario Damiano, Markus Scheucher, Apurva V. Oza, Heather A. Knutson, Yamila Miguel, Diana Dragomir, Alexis Brandeker, Brice-Olivier Demory; submitted May 8, 2024; arXiv, Cornell UniversityAt any rate, this Dr. Hu is the lead author of “A secondary atmosphere on the rocky Exoplanet 55 Cancri e”, published in Nature on May 8, 2024.

And, although Nature is a peer-reviewed scientific journal that’s currently unavailable to me, I do have access to a very recent pre-press draft on Cornell’s open-access arXiv service.1 I’ve talked about paywalls, member-only online resources, and other frustrations, before.

Getting back to “a new type of science”, the data Dr. Hu’s team was working with is new: partly from 2023 observations by the James Webb Space Telescope.

But as far as I could tell, they’re not using new mathematical tools. On the other hand, I could have missed something. I’m taking it easy this week, and didn’t pore over their pre-print paper all that intently.

Bayesian Basics and Dealing With Incomplete Data

Gnathan87's chart: results for an archaeological simulation, an example of Bayesian inference. (October 2011) via Wikimedia Commons, used w/o permissionMaybe part of the “new science” is running data through several analyses, with a different team working on each analysis.

“…The NIRCam data were analyzed by 4 independent teams with different pipelines (Methods). We removed 1/f noise (the correlated read noise that impacts data across a wide range of timescales with a 1/f power spectrum33)…”
(“A secondary atmosphere on the rocky exoplanet 55 Cancri e’“; Renyu Hu, Aaron Bello-Arufe, et al.; (submitted May 8, 2024) via arXiv, Cornell University)

Besides spreading out the workload, independent analysis teams should lower the odds that folks who are crunching the numbers will unintentionally bias their results. That can be a problem for any sort of analysis, not just science stuff, and that’s another topic.

One of the tools Hu and company used is Bayesian math: which I hadn’t noticed in research papers until fairly recently. But then, I’m not a scientist; and it wasn’t until fairly recently that I could get my virtual hands on such things.

Bayesian statistics is what happened when Pierre-Simon Laplace started working on Bayes’ theorem. Bayes was a statistician, philosopher, and Presbyterian minister. A whole bunch of folks have fine-tuned what we call Bayesian statistics, but I’ll skip all that.

Basically, Bayesian statistics lets scientists work out the odds that something is true, based on facts that may or may not matter. It’s useful when we don’t know everything.2

Which, arguably, is pretty much always the case.

Studying Starlight: Transits, Eclipses, and a Whole Lot of Math

Illustration from NASA/ESA/CSA/Joseph Olmsted (STScI), Science by Renyu Hu (JPL), Aaron Bello-Arufe (JPL), Michael Zhang (University of Chicago), Mantas Zilinskas (SRON Netherlands Institute for Space Research). 'A thermal emission spectrum of the super-Earth exoplanet 55 Cancri e, captured by NASA's James Webb Space Telescope's NIRCam (Near-Infrared Camera) GRISM Spectrometer (F444W) and MIRI (Mid-Infrared Instrument) Low-Resolution Spectrometer, shows that the planet may be surrounded by an atmosphere rich in carbon dioxide or carbon monoxide and other volatiles, not just vaporized rock.' (2024)
Illustration: 55 Cancri e’s thermal emission spectrum from NIRCam, GRISM Spectrometer (F444W), & MIRI. (March 2023, published 2024) NASA/ESA/CSA/STScI/JPL.

Studying 55 Cancri e would be fairly easy, if it was in the Solar System. We’d just point a telescope toward the planet and take a few pictures.

NASA/JPL-Caltech (R. Hurt/IPAC's infgraphic: 'scientists used the James Webb Space Telescope to observe the exoplanet WASP-18 b and its star before, during and after the planet was eclipsed. By measuring the change in light when the planet travels behind the star, the planet's brightness is revealed. From these measurements, scientists were able to make a temperature map of the planet's day side. Displayed temperature range: 2,800 to 4,800 degrees Fahrenheit.' May 31, 2023)If 55 Cancri e’s edges were fuzzy, that’d mean it’s got an atmosphere.

Scientists could put a spectrometer on the telescope, look at what wavelengths get reflected and/or absorbed, and that’d tell them what’s in the atmosphere or on the surface.

Or they could arrange for a probe to be dropped into 55 Cancri e’s atmosphere, and get data from that.

Just one problem. Light from 55 Cancri e takes 41 years to get here. Astronomers are doing well to work out which parts of the 55 Cancri A system’s light are coming from planets, and which are from the star.

Happily, since 55 Cancri e passes in front of and behind its star during each orbit, careful observations tell scientists quite a bit about the planet.

The trick is measuring light when:

  • Both are visible and neither is blocked
  • The planet blocks part of the star’s light
  • The star blocks light reflected by the planet

Then, using a whole lot of math, scientists work out what’s reflected from the just planet. And what is (or isn’t) shining through the planet’s atmosphere: if it’s got one.

I talked about this last year, along with what we’re learning about weather — winds, specifically — on WASP-18b.3


Welcome to the Copernicus Planetary System

Screenshot from NASA's Eyes on Exoplanets: 55 Cancri e, and known planets in the Copernicus system. (2019?) (screenshot taken May 12, 2024)
The star Copernicus, 55 Cancri A, and its known planets.

Star chart by Roger Sinnott, Rick Fienberg (IAU/Sky and Telescope magazine): the constellation Cancer.55 Cancri is a double star, between Rho2 and Iota Cancri in our sky.

55 Cancri B is a red dwarf with no name.

But in 2015, the IAU made it official: 55 Cancri A’s name is Copernicus.

Copernicus / 55 Cancri A’s planets are:

  • Galileo (b)
  • Brahe (c)
  • Lipperhey (d)
  • Janssen (e)
  • Harriot (f)

55 Cancri has a Bonner Durchmusterung designation, BD+28°1660, which strongly suggests that it was known at least as far back as the mid-19th century.

Scientists started spotting planets around 55 Cancri A in the late 20th century.

Galileo, 55 Cancri b, was discovered in 1996; Janssen, 55 Cancri e — the planet I’m talking about this week — was discovered in 2004.

Harriot’s discovery, that’s 55 Cancri f, was announced in 2005 and published in 2007.

At that point, the Copernicus planetary system had five known planets. The last I checked, there’s informed speculation that there may be more.

So how come one of last week’s headlines announced the “discovery” of Janssen??

I suspect deadline pressures are a factor, along with the need to grab attention.

That may account for headlines like these:

That’d be impressive, if other scientists hadn’t published this research, back in 2016:

  • “Detection of an atmosphere around the super-Earth 55 Cancri e”
    A. Tsiaras et al., The Astrophysical Journal (March 24, 2016)

From 'The Fifth Element', via IMDB.com, used w/o permission.In my darker moments, I feel that many news editors got their science education by watching “Captain Planet and the Planeteers” and “The Fifth Element”.4

More likely, the headlines and articles reflect each publication’s readership: 0r editorial perceptions thereof.

The “Diamond-covered” description isn’t entirely inaccurate. I’ll get back to that.

There’s No Place Like Home: But the Copernicus System Comes Close

Screenshot from NASA's Eyes on Exoplanets: 55 Cancri e and inner planets of the Copernicus system. (2019?) (screenshot taken May 12, 2024)
A closer look at the Copernicus planetary system.

NASA's diagram, comparing Cancri 55 planetary system and the Solar System's Earth and Jupiter. (2006)Although the Copernicus planetary system has a Jupiter-sized planet orbiting at about Jupiter’s distance, it’s not quite like our Solar System.

It is, however, the second-closest match we’ve found, as far as I know.

Second Planetary System Like Ours Discovered
Shannon Hall, Universe Today (November 27, 2013)

“…KOI-351 is ‘the first system with a significant number of planets (not just two or three, where random fluctuations can play a role) that shows a clear hierarchy like the solar system — with small, probably rocky, planets in the interior and gas giants in the (exterior),’….”
[emphasis mine]

Our Solar System’s Cousin?
NASA/JPL-Caltech (November 6, 2007)

“…The 55 Cancri system is currently the closest known analogue to our solar system, yet there are some fundamental differences.

“The similarities begin with the stars themselves, which are about the same mass and age. Both stars also host big families of planets….

“…In addition, both planetary systems have giant planets in their outer regions. The giant located far away from 55 Cancri is four times the mass of our Jupiter, and completes one orbit every 14 years at a distance of five times that between Earth and the sun … Our Jupiter completes one orbit around the sun every 11.9 years, also at about five times the Earth-sun distance….”
[emphasis mine]

Other stars, like HD 70642 and HIP 11915, have roughly Jupiter-mass planets orbiting about as far out as Jupiter. But again: the Copernicus system is still among the very few that resemble our Solar System.

Make that vaguely resemble.

The KOI-351 system — it’s also called Kepler-90, has a mess of other designations, and if I start talking about that, this won’t be ready by Saturday.

Anyway, the KOI-351/Kepler-90 system has eight planets.

The smaller ones orbit close to their star, which is almost but not quite like ours. So far, the KOI-351 system sounds just like the Solar System. Except that all eight planets are closer to their sun than Earth is to ours.

The Copernicus / 55 Cancri planetary system has a roughly Jupiter-mass planet in an orbit roughly as big as Jupiter’s.

But the other known planets aren’t arranged like the Solar System’s:with smaller, rocky, worlds close to the star and giant planets farther out.

Here’s the known Copernicus system planets, starting with the innermost one:5

  • e (Janssen) — 7.99 times Earth’s mass, 1.875 times Earth’s diameter
  • b (Galileo) — 0.8 times Jupiter’s mass, maybe more
  • c (Brahe) — 51.2 times Earth’s mass, maybe more
  • f (Harriot) — 49.8 times Earth’s mass, maybe more
  • d (Lipperhey) — 3.12 times Jupiter’s mass, maybe more

I left out symbols like ±, M[astronomical symbol meaning “Earth”], and MJ, which say which Solar System planet is being used for comparison, and how accurate our data is. Basically, those numbers are approximations, but pretty close.

Copernicus: Giant Planets and a Super-Earth Circling a Slightly Strange Star

Chaos syndrome's illustration, comparing orbits of 55 Cancri A's planetary sysytem and the Inner Solar System's.Lipperhey, the outermost known planet in the Copernicus system, is roughly three and an eighth times Jupiter’s mass.

The inner planets — Janssen, Galileo, Brahe, and Harriot — all have orbits smaller than Earth’s.

Janssen, the one I’m talking about today, whips around Copernicus once every 17 hours and 41 minutes. Just under 17 hours and 41 minutes, actually. The point is that it’s really, really, close to its sun.

On top of that, Copernicus is a slightly odd star. Although is it’s a trifle cooler and less massive than our sun, Copernicus apparently puts out a bit more energy than a K0-V main sequence star should.

So it’s classed as K0IV-V: maybe on the main sequence, maybe a subgiant star.

More oddities: Copernicus has more “metals” than our sun. In astronomer-speak, a “metal” is any element heavier than hydrogen or helium. Copernicus has 186% the solar amount of iron; and a carbon/oxygen ratio of 0.78, compared to our star’s 0.55.

All that apparently makes the age of Copernicus hard to work out. But, whether it’s 7,400,000,000 years old or 12,700,000,000 years old, it’s been around considerably longer than the Solar System.

Janssen isn’t quite so ambiguous. It’s a super-Earth that actually is a terrestrial planet: a rocky (?) world, like Earth. It’s twice our home’s diameter, and so hot that it might have had an atmosphere of vaporized rock.6


Janssen: ‘Terrestrial’, But Not Like Earth

Renyu Hu et al.: figure 7 'Thermal emission spectra of 55 cnc e if it has a thin, vaporized-rock atmosphere. a. The spectrum is calculated with the model of Ref32 for varied silicate-based melt compositions. b. The spectrum is calculated with the model of Ref31 assuming the BSE composition as magma composition. The NIRCam spectrum is shown with a mean eclipse depth of 150 ppm in both panels. The difference between the two models is mainly due to the different opacities used for SiO, but regardless a vaporized-rock atmosphere is inconsistent with the MIRI measured spectrum.' (2024) via arXiv, used w/o permission
Comparing Janssen’s hypothetical rock vapor atmosphere with NIRCam spectrum. Renyu Hu et al. (2024)

Again, Janssen is almost certainly a terrestrial planet: like Mercury, Venus, Earth-Moon, and Mars in the Solar System. I’m inclined to see the Earth-Moon system as a double planet; which is yet another topic.

But Janssen’s ‘rocks’ may not be the silicate sort we’re familiar with.

Now, about Janssen’s atmosphere. Thanks to this month’s “A secondary atmosphere on the rocky exoplanet 55 Cancri e” paper, we can be pretty sure Janssen has an atmosphere; and that Janssen’s air isn’t made of rock vapor.

Odds are that Janssen’s atmosphere has a fair amount of carbon dioxide or carbon monoxide, something that’s mentioned in the study’s opening Summary Paragraph:

“…The measurements rule out the scenario where the planet is a lava world shrouded by a tenuous atmosphere made of vaporized rock29-32, and indicate a bona fide volatile atmosphere likely rich in CO2 or CO. This atmosphere can be outgassed from and sustained by a magma ocean….”
(“A secondary atmosphere on the rocky Exoplanet 55 Cancri e“, Renyu Hu et al., preprint (May 2024) via arXiv)

Black body radiation curve, Astronomy Education at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln.They used data from the James Webb Space Telescope’s MIRI (Mid-Infrared Instrument) and NIRCam (Near-InfraRed Camera) — I talked about JWST and infrared astronomy last December.

I remember reading about carbon dioxide and monoxide in Janssen’s atmosphere in science news articles: but not an odd chemical mentioned in the research paper’s main text:

“…The presence of H2O, SO2, or PH3 could improve the fit to the spectral modulation in 4-5 μm in some cases. In the other set of models, we assumed an atmosphere in volatile equilibrium with the underlying magma ocean44,45….

“…In summary, the best-fit models center around three possible scenarios: a CO2-rich atmosphere (C+O~10-3, C/O<1), a CO-dominated atmosphere (C+O~1, C/O>=1), or a PH3-rich atmosphere with minimal C+O influence (C/O=1, C+O=10-7, PH3~10-4). The first scenario is uniquely favored when fitting the NIRCam data alone (Extended Data Fig. 8), which is consistent with spectral retrievals. By contrast, the MIRI data does not indicate any clear molecular features, suggesting either efficient heat redistribution or overlapping absorption features (e.g., H2O in 7-9 μm and CO2 in 9-11 μm) that place the photosphere to the cooler regions of the atmosphere….”
(“A secondary atmosphere on the rocky Exoplanet 55 Cancri e“, Renyu Hu et al., preprint (May 2024) via arXiv) [emphasis mine]

Phosphine, PH3, is a compound of phosphorus and hydrogen. It’s highly toxic, and used for both pest control and microelectronics manufacturing.

Other than what Hu et al. said about adding a dash of phosphine for a better fit, I don’t see why they picked that particular compound.

Hydrogen is by far the most common element in this universe. Carbon and oxygen are both among the 10 most common elements, at least in this galaxy. Phosphorus isn’t.

My guess is that someone will crunch numbers for the “PH3-rich atmosphere with minimal C+O influence” atmosphere model.

I suspect it’s just a matter of time before a reporter notices PH3, phosphine, in one of the study’s models; and remembers the occasional published reports of phosphine in the atmosphere of Venus.7

Although phosphine might be a biosignature, the odds of life on Venus are almost nil, and they’re even less for Jannsen.

Diamonds are another matter.

Like a Diamond in the Sky?

Haven Giguere's illustration: 'the interior of 55 Cancri e - an extremely hot planet with a surface of mostly graphite surrounding a thick layer of diamond, below which is a layer of silicon-based minerals and a molten iron core at the center.' (2012)
Haven Giguere’s illustration: 55 Cancri e as a ‘diamond planet’. YaleNews (2012)

Nearby super-Earth likely a diamond planet
“New research led by Yale University scientists suggests that a rocky planet twice Earth’s size orbiting a nearby star is a diamond planet.”
YaleNews (October 11, 2012)

“New research led by Yale University scientists suggests that a rocky planet twice Earth’s size orbiting a nearby star is a diamond planet.

“‘This is our first glimpse of a rocky world with a fundamentally different chemistry from Earth,’ said lead researcher Nikku Madhusudhan, a Yale postdoctoral researcher in physics and astronomy. ‘The surface of this planet is likely covered in graphite and diamond rather than water and granite.’…”

I said I’d get back to this:

Each time scientists publish something about 55 Cancri e, Janssen, I can count on headlines like these popping up:

As I said earlier: reporters and editors deal with deadlines, headlines are supposed to grab attention, and Janssen was discovered in 2004. Under the circumstance, I’m impressed when an article clarifies whether “big” refers to width or mass.

“…The width of the planet is about twice that of Earth and is around 9 times heavier than Earth. According to the information shared by NASA, this exoplanet is known as 55 Cancri e….”
(“NASA Discovers Exoplanet Made Of Diamond And 9 Times Bigger Than Earth“, Curated by Buzz Staff, News18, Delhi, India (May 11, 2024))

However, I’m not clear on where “the information shared by NASA” came from. NASA does have 55 Cancri e-related content, but it also gives Janssen’s mass as “7.99 Earths”.8

Maybe the “around 9 times heavier” thing came from truncating “7.99″. I don’t know.

Carbon Planets: Carbides and Maybe Diamonds

Gregg Dinderman's illustration in Sky and Telescope, comparing structure of a carbon planet and a silicate planet. Source: Marc J. Kuchner / Sara Seager. (2005)I have to admit that ‘diamond planet’ is a catchy phrase.

And Janssen may, in fact, have “a fundamentally different chemistry from Earth”. Which isn’t, actually, a new idea.

The Solar System’s inner planets are mostly silicates, “rocks”, and metals like iron. Much of the stuff we call rocks are silicates: compounds of oxygen and silicone.

At least since 2005, scientists have been saying that an exoplanet’s “rocks” might be made of elements other than oxygen and silicone. Like, for example, carbon and silicone. A “carbon planet” could have an iron-rich core with a mantle of silicon carbide.

And, if there’s enough pressure down where the planet’s mostly carbon, there could be diamonds instead of graphite.

Since Janssen’s sun has significantly more carbon than ours, it may really be a “diamond planet”.9 If so, finding proof will take time.

More, mostly about planets and stars:


1 Scientists, research, and a scientific journal:

  • Wikipedia
  • A secondary atmosphere on the rocky Exoplanet 55 Cancri e
    Renyu Hu, Aaron Bello-Arufe, Michael Zhang, Kimberly Paragas, Mantas Zilinskas, Christiaan van Buchem, Michael Bess, Jayshil Patel, Yuichi Ito, Mario Damiano, Markus Scheucher, Apurva V. Oza, Heather A. Knutson, Yamila Miguel, Diana Dragomir, Alexis Brandeker, Brice-Olivier Demory; preprint draft of paper published in Nature (May 8, 2024) (submitted May 8, 2024) via arXiv, Cornell University
  • First Detection of Super-Earth Atmosphere
    heic1603 — Science Release, Hubble Space Telescope News, ESA/Hubble (February 16, 2016)
  • Renyu Hu (Dr. Renyu Hu: Ph.D. in planetary science MIT (2013); M.S. Astrophysics, Tsinghua University (2009); Diplome d’Ingenieur, Ecole Centrale Paris (2009); B.S. Mathematics and Physics, Tsinghua University (2007))
  • Renyu Hu, PhD
    Renyu Hu’s Homepage

2 Statistics and minimizing errors:

3 Studying distant worlds:

4 Stars, planets, research (plus a cartoon and a movie); this was not hard to find:

5 Planets and planetary systems:

6 Planets, stars, and informed speculation:

7 Elements, compounds, and abiotic processes:

8 An exoplanet, the news, and science:

9 Science and informed speculation:

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Well, That’s Frustrating.

UPDATE, about 20 minutes later.

My son spotted the problem, corrected it, and I should be able to make this week’s post available shortly. Thank you for your patience. And a big thank you to my son!

xxxx

This week’s post, “A Super-Earth With an Air About It: 55 Cancri e, Janssen” is written and ready to go.

Just one problem.

I can’t post it.

There’s some problem, maybe with WordPress, maybe with something else, that gives me an error message each time I try to put this week’s post online.

At the moment, midday on Saturday, May 18, 2024, my son is asking me sensible questions. Maybe he’ll find a solution.

Meanwhile: sorry about this, and I have not given up.

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Spaceplanes: A New Analysis

This article makes a case for spaceplanes being both possible and — in the long run — an economic necessity.

It’s not my current topic, partly because I was talking about this sort of thing last week:

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